Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022

Editor

The Detroit Lions come in as 4.0 point home underdog as they play the Philadelphia Eagles at Ford Field Sunday. It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The road Eagles won by double digits, defeating the Lions 44-6 in Week 8 of 2021. The Game Total for that game was 48.0 and which the Over hit.

Philadelphia's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #4 in the league with 4.82 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Philadelphia's o-line ranks #3-best in this regard. This represents a particular advantage for Philadelphia given that the Lions have struggled so much to stop the run this year, allowing 4.79 yards per carry (#6-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Eagles have ranked #15 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 223 yards per game through the air against them (#13 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #13 with 4.35 yards per carry. Philadelphia has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 122 yards per game (#3-best). Philadelphia has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 63 yards per game (#1-worst).

Detroit's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 374 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #6 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #6-most yards per carry: 4.79. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their pass defense, which has landed them in the #29 spot in terms of yards per target (8.44). Lions defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #1-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Lions check in at #21 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 226 yards per game (#20 in football). Their run game has ranked #23 with 4.03 yards per attempt on the ground.

Philadelphia Eagles Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (28.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.7% in games he has played).

  • Kenneth Gainwell has accrued a colossal 6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among RBs.

  • The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.33 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the NFL.

Detroit Lions Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 10th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • The Detroit Lions cornerbacks rank as the 9th-worst group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

  • The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 3 games at home (+7.00 Units / 233% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Eagles have scored last in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.90 Units / 57% ROI)

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.90 Units / 81% ROI)