Patriots vs Bills Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - December 31st, 2023

a year ago

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This Sunday, at 1:00 PM ET, the New England Patriots will face off against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. As divisional foes, this matchup holds extra significance, as both teams will be motivated to secure a victory. The Bills, with a record of 9-6 this season, enter the game on a hot streak, having won their last three consecutive games. In contrast, the Patriots have struggled, going 4-11 this season and losing 11 of their last 15 games.

In their previous meeting in Week 7, the Patriots defeated the Bills in a thrilling game that ended with a score of 29-25. This adds an extra layer of anticipation and revenge for the Bills in this rematch. The last encounter between these teams showcased the Patriots defying the odds as 7.5 point underdogs and with only a 23% chance of winning.

The Bills are favored to win this game, with the odds giving them an 88% chance of victory, while the Patriots have a 12% chance. The initial spread opened at Bills -11.5 but has since moved to Bills -14, indicating substantial support from sharp bettors. This significant shift suggests that sportsbooks have considerable liability and are likely hoping for the Patriots to cover the spread.

It's worth noting that the Bills will have an extra day of rest, which may give them an advantage in terms of preparation and recovery. However, the Patriots are coming off a surprising win against the Denver Broncos, defying a 7 point underdog status with just a 26% chance of winning.

As this pivotal divisional matchup unfolds, keep an eye on the Bills' recent hot streak and the Patriots' determination to salvage a challenging season. The odds and spread movements point towards a strong belief in the Bills' ability to dominate at home. Will the Patriots exceed expectations once again, or will the Bills exact revenge for their previous loss? Only time will tell as these AFC East rivals clash on the gridiron.

Patriots Insights

The Patriots offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Bailey Zappe's passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 70.0% to 65.0%.
Our trusted projections expect Ezekiel Elliott to accumulate 0.15 receiving TDs this week, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.

Bills Insights

While Josh Allen has earned 19.8% of his team's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Buffalo's run game near the goal line in this week's game at 33.9%.
Gabriel Davis has put up quite a few less air yards this year (76.0 per game) than he did last year (95.0 per game).
This year, the imposing New England Patriots defense has allowed the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a paltry 6.4 yards.

Betting Trends

The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.45 Units / 25% ROI)
Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)