NFL Win Total Projections 2023-'24 Season from Statsational

Prior to the start of each NFL season, I engage in the task of forecasting the win totals for all NFL teams. My projections are methodologically derived from the following considerations:

Last season's Power Rankings serve as the foundational basis for my analysis. These rankings, devoid of any inherent bias, abstain from factoring in turnovers. The rationale behind this exclusion lies in the substantial fortuity involved in turnover outcomes. While it is undoubtedly true that the best quarterbacks tend to commit fewer turnovers, it is important to acknowledge that such teams also tend to amass higher scores and yardage to offset this effect. I incorporate a positive adjustment in certain exceptional cases where a few quarterbacks have consistently demonstrated the capacity to outperform rankings over successive seasons. Presently, Patrick Mahomes stands as the sole member of this esteemed category.

Personnel adjustments primarily revolve around the quarterback position, recognizing that the NFL betting community, particularly the most astute handicappers, affords little significance absence of any player, save for the quarterback. Consequently, our focus rests on assessing the QB position's influence on the point spread for each team per game.

Subsequently, I derive the expected points scored by and against each team based on their scheduled opponents. These calculations are then incorporated into the Pythagorean theorem for NFL victories, culminating in determining the win tally for each team.

Let me present the anticipated win totals for the forthcoming 2023-24 season. I will follow up with another article that will detail my preferred bets. The chart below illustrates the Draftkings win totals and corresponding prices, along with the edges based on my projected win totals.