NFL Week 8 Sunday Main Slate Props With Adam Strangis

There are fewer teams on bye this week so we have more choices and a fun slate overall. With so many options, let's get rolling!

James Robinson Over 69.5 Rushing Yards at -115

Jacksonville has continued to feed Robinson the ball in the past four games as he was fourth in carries during that period. Coming out of the bye week, we should expect nothing less and he had cleared 70 rushing yards in all four of those games. The Jaguars travel out West to take on the Seahawks and while they rank 11th in DVOA against the run, they are 15th in yards per carry allowed. Additionally, they have faced the most rushing attempts and have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards against running backs. This line should likely be at least 5-8 yards higher. 

Eli Mitchell Over 72.5 Rushing Yards at -115 

The 49ers are four-point favorites on the road and we should expect a heavy dose of Mitchell in this game. In the first game out of their bye week, Mitchell carried the ball 18 times while playing 66% of the snaps and that was 85% of the running back attempts. He is the clear alpha in the backfield and Chicago is 18th in yards allowed per carry and 17th in DVOA against the run. San Francisco is 10th in rushing attempts per game and 12th in rushing yards per game, a great combo to get Mitchell to 75 yards or more. 

Kyle Pitts Over 4.5 Receptions at -130 

Among players who have played fewer than seven games, Pitts is tied for 12th in targets in the league. That is impressive and the breakout is here for Pitts. During the first few weeks, it was tough sledding for Pitts and the Falcons offense but his quarterback is playing better in the new offense. We've now seen Pitts have a massive game when teammate Calvin Ridley is in the lineup, a nice bonus. Among tight ends, Pitts is sixth in slot snaps, sixth in routes and seventh in targets. Keep in mind the bye week has already happened and Pitts is at 7.3 targets per game. For context, Travis Kelce is at 9.3 and this is too low for Pitts. 

A.J. Brown Over 69.5 Receiving Yards at -115 

The last time we took this prop for Brown, it was against the Colts and he got injured very early on. Brown is back in a big way and has seen nine targets in consecutive weeks and exceeded 90 receiving yards in both. The Colts have a secondary that can be exploited as they are 22nd in DVOA against the pass. Brown is 10th among receivers in target rate at 30.3% and Brown is heating up at just the right time to hit his yardage. 

Pat Freiermuth Over 2.5 Receptions at +100

Perhaps I'm overreacting to one solid game from the rookie tight end when he saw seven targets and had seven receptions, but I believe the book is not reacting properly. He played 60% of the snaps and tied for second in targets during that game. The aDOT was just 5.1 yards and that was third behind Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool and that is a key metric. The Steelers offense was missing JuJu Smith-Schuster due to a shoulder injury and his aDOT on the season was 6.5 yards, third behind those two receivers. The fact that the Steelers had a bye week to further prepare the rookie just means even bigger things are on the horizon and this one might be my favorite bet of the week. 

Ja'Marr Chase Over 26.5 Yards Longest Reception at -120

The law of averages would tell us eventually, this bet will not hit. Chase is in the midst of legitimately the best rookie season for a receiver that we have seen and in six of seven games so far, he's had a reception of at least 42 yards. In the lone game he didn't clear 40 yards he had a 34-yard reception and that would clear the bar pretty easily here. Not only are the Jets 28th in DVOA against the pass, but Chase is also third in air yards share, first in completed air yards, and sixth in yards per route. It would be an upset for this week to be the week that he doesn't make an explosive play. 

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