NFL Thursday Night Football Week 1 Bets with Adam Strangis

Oh boy, it is one of the best days of the year because NFL football....is...BACK! Football is my favorite sport and for those of you new to my content (for this or any other sport), thanks for taking the time out of your day to give this a read. I feel like a lot of folks say this, but NFL might be the best sport for me. In 2020 for Win Daily, I accumulated just under a 60% win rate on prop bets and I hope to earn your trust and win you a LOT of money in 2021! 

The game plan this season is to bring you guys and gals four prop articles a week. We'll cover the three island games (Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night football) and the "main" slate of Sunday afternoon. With all that said, let's get down to business! 

Note - All odds are taken from DraftKings Sports Book 

Antonio Brown, Over 4.5 Receptions at +125 and Over 49.5 Receiving Yards at -115 

I've been a huge proponent of AB in draft season, as he's been an outstanding value in my eyes. He walked into the Tampa offense off the street last season and I want you to keep in mind that his snap share was only 61.5%. Brown only ran about 29 routes per game in 2020, which had him at 98th in the league. In those games, he was targeted 26.2% of the time that he ran a route and that was 12th in football. AB averaged roughly 60 yards per game receiving and 5.6 receptions per game...playing barely 60% of the snaps and entering the offense in the middle of the year. Brown had knee surgery in the offseason and coach Bruce Arians has raved about how he looks and feels the best he has in years. As far as the matchup, he'll be facing some combo of Anthony Brown and/or Trevon Diggs since AB didn't play much out of the slot last year. Anthony Brown allowed a 76.7% catch rate over 60 targets last year while Diggs allowed a 15.1 yards per reception mark. I suspect with Diggs being taller and a bit heavier, Dallas would prefer to match him up with Mike Evans. I feel strongly that Brown smashes these numbers. 

Ronald Jones Over 11.5 Carries at -105 

Jones is not exactly a special running back, but the Buccaneers felt comfortable enough to bring him and Leonard Fournette back in 2021. Yes, they also brought in Giovani Bernard but that is as a pass-catching specialist. He's not a large threat to take carries from either, and they're not much of a threat in the passing game (to be polite. Fournette had that role last year but also was 87th in YPR). Jones averaged 13.4 carries last year while Fournette was at 7.5 and I think we see a lot of status quo. Fournette came through in the playoffs and is listed as the first back on the depth chart, but Arians is on record saying they are both starters. Yards per carry isn't a stat that holds much water for me, but it's a little more interesting when we compare teammates because they are dealing with the same offensive line. Fournette was at a 3.8 YPC while Jones was at 5.1. The efficiency wasn't that close and I would be surprised to see Jones not lead the backfield again. 

Tom Brady Under 0.5 Interceptions at -115 

For a player that has a career 1.8% interception rate, these seem like pretty friendly odds. Brady threw 12 picks last year but that was only the second time in seven seasons he hit double digits. In six of his last eight games (including playoffs) to cap the 2020 season, he did not throw an interception. For their part, Dallas only generated 10 interceptions last year. All we hear from Tampa is how much more comfortable everyone is on the offensive side working together. I think it shows Thursday and I also think the only way Brady throws a pick is on a batted ball style of play. 

CeeDee Lamb Over 4.5 Receptions at -145 

It may not make you the most money ever, but Dallas is walking into this game as 7.5 point underdogs (hence four props on the Bucs side of things). That would point to the Cowboys will need to throw a lot of passes and while the Tampa pass rush is nasty, Dallas should have lineman Tyron Smith and La'el Collins back in the lineup after missing portions of 2020. Lamb averaged right at 4.6 receptions last year but only played 66.3% of snaps. The rookie training wheels will be off this year and Lamb has been moving out of the slot more as well since he played 84.7% of his snaps in the slot last year. With the injury to quarterback Dak Prescott, just 78.4% of Lamb's targets were catchable last year and that ranked 45th in the league. That's going to improve and five receptions seems beyond reasonable in a game script they should trail in. The matchup will rotate since Lamb has been moving around more during camp but the second-year receiver can get it done against any corner he faces. 

Thank you very much for reading, find me on Twitter @bucn4life, and let's win some money!