NFL Sunday Night Football Bets with Adam Strangis
We have more NFL action tonight when the Bears take on the Rams and their new-look offense, with the Rams being favored by eight. When we're laying out this game script, a heavy favorite would project to run the ball plenty but I think that won't be the case for the most part. Rams coach Sean McVay is going to be excited to unleash quarterback Matthew Stafford and the bets will reflect that. Additionally, the Bears secondary is banged up and might be missing safety Tashaun Gipson Sr. along with lineman Eddie Goldman. Most of the other defensive players are questionable with the expectation of playing, but the spot could in theory get even better for the Rams. Let's get rolling!
Matthew Stafford Over 277.5 Passing Yards, -115
When I'm looking at this bet, it's sort of in conjunction with a few factors. First, the DK Sports Book has Stafford's O/U for attempts at 35.5. If he's getting close to that, Stafford will likely end up near 300 yards. When Jared Goff was playing last year, he was averaging 36 attempts per game with 263 yards. Stafford is better than Goff and he completed 42% of his deep passes compared to 27% for Goff. Stafford also attempted 61 deep passes while Goff was at 48 and the skill players around Stafford just got a LOT better as well. He'll be able to utilize Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, not to mention DeSean Jackson and Van Jefferson on deep balls. Stafford could wind up being near the top of the passing yards leaderboard at the end of the year and he's likely to start with a bang tonight.
Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp Over 5.5 Receptions, -120 each
Picking between these two for fantasy purposes can be a titanic pain but we're taking both of them in this spot. Let's start with Woods, who plays the majority on the boundary but does play a quarter of his snaps in the slot. He only averaged 5.5 receptions last year but some of that was Goff-related, ranking 65th in catchable target rate. When he's on the boundary, he'll face corner Jaylon Johnson who was strong with a completion rate allowed under 57%. We're looking for 2-3 receptions on the inside and then the remainder on the outside. Johnson is not a corner that I will actively avoid with Stafford at the helm.
Kupp was 11th in routes out of the slot and both of these receivers were over a 22% target share. With the deeper portion of the field more open this year, that could actually improve and Kupp undoubtedly gets the easier matchup on paper. It is likely to be some of Duke Shelly who allowed a 70% catch rate and Kupp was already ninth in receptions last year at 6.1 per contest. I don't see much of a reason either player shouldn't have six catches tonight and they should see 8-10 targets each.
LA Rams Over 3.5 Total Touchdowns, +125
When we look at the total of 46.5 and the spread of -8, that would have the final score projected to be around 27-19. Let's say the passing game accounts for two touchdowns to be conservative. I think Stafford and company will be able to slash their way through that secondary for three on their own, but they're going to move the ball. They were 11th in the league last year with Goff in yards per game and while the loss of Cam Akers hurts, Sony Michel and Darrell Anderson are capable backs. As a team, the Rams averaged 23.3 points last year but I think there's a strong value at a +125 return for an offense I expect to play very well. We can also get a defensive score with Andy Dalton as the Bears quarterback so I'm happy to take a shot at this one.
Thank you for reading, find me on Twitter @bucn4life, and let's make some money!