NFL Futures Win Totals Bets 2023-2024 Season

Last week I released my NFL win total projections based on my model. Today I will review some of the futures bets I like based on those projections.

LA Chargers u9.5 +100

In the initial stages of Brandon Staley's tenure as an NFL head coach, I was optimistic that he would be highly successful due to his apparent adeptness in utilizing analytics, surpassing his peers across the league. However, I changed my opinion as subsequent games unfolded, revealing a mix of seemingly astute 4th down decisions alongside glaring deficiencies in late-game management.

The team's performance with Herbert as the quarterback has yet to ascend to the echelon of premier teams like Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincinnati. A persistent issue arises from the perennial injury woes of wide receivers Allen and Williams, hindering their ability to stay on the field an entire season. There is no reason to think this year will be any different.

In the previous season, LA occupied the 16th position in my power rankings, with their defense ranked 22nd, showcasing room for improvement. To offset the limitations of the subpar defense, substantial progress from Herbert and the offense becomes paramount. Last season's average of 6.7 yards per pass attempt falls below the desired level for a team seeking to compensate for its defensive vulnerabilities.

Achieving 10 wins in a fiercely competitive division appears to be an ambitious goal that will necessitate significant strides from the team in various facets of their game.

Cleveland Browns o9.5 +115

My analysis heavily relies on the data from the previous season, with subsequent adjustments made to account for personnel changes. Notably, the absence of Deshaun Watson for 11 weeks had a significant impact. Jacoby Brissett, while a dependable backup, was not ideally suited for leading the team throughout the bulk of an NFL season. Despite the challenges at the quarterback position, the team still managed to secure 7 wins, showcasing their resilience.

As we approach the 2023 season, Watson's period of inactivity should be behind him, and he will likely be in good form. His extended rest might even work to his advantage. Additionally, the team boasts the second-best offensive line in the league, as per PFF rankings. Last year, their offensive performance ranked 12th overall, with their impressive rushing attack ranked fourth.

Considering the division's competitiveness is important, but based on my assessment, I believe that the AFC North will likely send three teams to the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings u8.5 +110

Based on statistical analysis, the Vikings experienced an exceptionally favorable season last year, securing 13 wins. However, I anticipate a significant regression to their mean in the upcoming season. It's noteworthy that despite their impressive record, the team was outscored by their opponents throughout the season, a remarkable achievement.

The Vikings' defense was notably subpar, especially when defending against the pass, where I currently rank them at the bottom of the league. This deficiency in their defensive capabilities raises concerns about their ability to hold off opponents effectively.

While the loss of Cook might be perceived as a potential setback, the presence of Mattison as a capable replacement minimizes the impact. Conversely, Jefferson remains a prominent offensive threat and is expected to continue to impress.

While the team is likely to score well, I am skeptical about their ability to outshoot opponents consistently as they did last year. Overall, there are doubts about their ability to replicate their 2022 success.

New England Patriots o6.5 -130

Last season The Patriots were a bit of a mess. The QB situation became more cloudy than the Patriots had hoped for going into the year. However, the team managed to avoid complete collapse and received a boost from Bailey Zappe. Remarkably, the Patriots experienced a bit of bad luck in terms of variance, as they finished the season with an 8-9 record despite having a positive point differential of +17.

Notwithstanding the challenges, Bill Belichick's football acumen shone through as he orchestrated an exceptional defense that ranked third in terms of EPA (Expected Points Added) per play allowed and fourth in yards per play. Looking ahead to the 2023 season, the team has made modest improvements to its roster. However, the most critical position on the field, quarterback, remains a question that could significantly impact the team's performance moving forward.

Belichick has proven he is worth about one win a year historically. I think he will find a way to get this team to 7 wins with strong defense despite having a tough division to fight through.

New Orleans Saints o9.5 +105

The Saints have a lot of upside, so I like getting the plus juice. Last season, they faced a challenging -11 turnover margin. Turnovers tend to have a high luck factor attached to them. We should see a reversion to the mean, so my model likes them for ten wins. Despite the bad TO differential, the Saints kept their scoring margin at -15. Additionally, they outperformed their opponents by an average of 0.6 yards per play.

The Saints' defense demonstrated its strength by ranking 10th in terms of EPA per play and eighth in points allowed per drive. My rankings had them finishing the season as the 9th best defense in the league. Nevertheless, the team's struggles with turnovers, both on offense and the lack thereof on defense, significantly impacted their overall performance.

Derek Carr is a mid-level starting QB, but he will be an upgrade in terms of ball security from what they saw a year ago. If the defense continues to play at the level they are capable of they should be able to hit this number in a weak division.

Stay tuned for some more futures bets in the coming days.