NFL Futures Division Winner Bets 2023-2024

I released my NFL win total projections two weeks ago based on my model. Last week I gave out win totals bets I liked based on those projections. Today I want to look at bets for division winners.

I ran a Monte Carlo simulation for this season. After playing the season out 1000 times, here are the probabilities of each team winning their division, along with the Draftkings lines corresponding to each team.

Two teams stand out above all others and those are San Francisco and Kansas City. Let's go over both of these teams.

NFC West
San Francisco -160
The San Francisco 49ers encountered a significant setback in the NFC Championship Game last year against the Eagles when QB Brock Purdy and backup QB Josh Johnson were injured early in the contest.

If the 49ers had a skilled and capable quarterback in that game, people might have a more favorable outlook for SF this season. This shows that the quarterback position affects a team's success and story more than any other position. It's reasonable to say that San Francisco could have won the 2022 Super Bowl. Also, when you look at the team on paper, it seems like they're one of the few teams set up well to win the championship in 2023 possibly.

Offense
There's a bit of uncertainty about who will be the quarterback for the 49ers, but that's not new for them. It could be Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, or Trey Lance. No matter who it is, this San Francisco team has the potential to be good on offense. Last year, they were the sixth-best team in the league regarding offensive performance, and only five other teams in the NFL scored more points per game than they did.

The only important player they lost on offense is Mike McGlinchey, who moved to the Denver Broncos after signing a big contract with them for five years and $87.5 million. As long as the 49ers' offensive line doesn't fall apart without McGlinchey, nothing should stop them from having a strong offense in 2023. Plus, it's worth mentioning that it's hard to have a bad offensive line when someone as skilled as Trent Williams is leading the left side. He was ranked as the best tackle by PFF (Pro Football Focus) in 2022, and he's held that title for three years straight.

Christian McCaffrey was impressive when he joined the team in the Bay Area last year. He's set to improve even more with a full offseason to prepare for playing in this offensive system. Realistically, with players like McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle on the team, it will be tough for opposing defenses to figure out how to stop such a talented offense. They'll have their hands full trying to contain all these skilled players.

Defense
Last year, the 49ers had one of the best defenses when it came to both passing and rushing plays, and they ended up being the best in the league overall when it comes to defense. Nick Bosa was incredibly impressive for the San Francisco team last season. He finished with 18.5 sacks, which is a big accomplishment, and he got a really good grade from PFF with a score of 90.6, which was the third best for players in his position. With Bosa leading the way in the front, Fred Warner holding down the middle, and a strong group of defensive backs, led by corner Charvarius Ward, there's every reason to think that the 49ers' defense will be one of the best in the league again.

During the offseason, the 49ers also added Javon Hargrave to the team. He's expected to be a strong player along the defensive line this season. It'll also be interesting to see if Clelin Ferrell, who the team got for a good price, is a smart move. He has a lot of talent and could positively impact a specific role, especially with the talented players around him.

In 2022, no team in the league allowed fewer points per game than the 16.3 points the 49ers gave up. So, don't be surprised if San Francisco again leads the league in that aspect in 2023. The 49ers are lucky regarding their schedule – it's one of the easier ones in the league.

Arizona and LA have virtually no chance of winning the division, so it will likely come down to SF and Seattle. Seattle was overrated, according to my model, in 2022. The Seahawks had the 3rd best team passer rating last year at 99.9. That number was trending lower as the season continued, and some of the Geno Smith early season shine wore off.

I like not being too reliant on a QB to be healthy for a bet to cash. The 49ers can win this division with any of their QBs.

AFC West
Kansas City -165

Patrick Mahomes became the quarterback for the Chiefs in 2018, and since then, the team has done well in the regular season with records of 12-4, 12-4, 14-2, 12-5, and 14-3. Mahomes has also won two Super Bowls, lost one, and lost two AFC championship games. The Chiefs are still the favorites to win their division despite some competition, according to DraftKings.

Offense
Regarding their offense, some people thought that their performance might decrease when the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill for draft picks from Miami. But Mahomes wanted to prove them wrong. The offense improved in 2022 and had the highest average points per game in the NFL (29.2, up from 28.2 in 2021). Mahomes led the league in passing yards (5,250) and touchdowns (41). Even though the receivers' names might change, expect Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce to continue performing well. The running back positions are in good hands with players like Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The offensive line should also be strong, with returning players like guards Joe Thuney and Trey Smith and center Creed Humphrey. The Chiefs made significant signings in free agency to strengthen the offensive line.

Defense
When it comes to defense, the Chiefs are known for putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They ranked second in the league with 55 sacks, led by tackle Chris Jones with 15.5 sacks. Rookie George Karlaftis also made an impact with six sacks. The Chiefs ranked 11th in total defense and 16th in scoring defense. Some changes have happened, including the release of veteran Frank Clark, but the additions of players like Charles Omenihu and Felix Anudike-Uzomah should make the defensive line even stronger. Overall, the Chiefs' defense has a lot of depth and talent in the linebacker spots and secondary, which makes them one of the strongest defenses in the AFC. They'll face some tough opponents early in the season, including quarterbacks Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Aaron Rodgers in the first four weeks.

Everything revolves around Patrick Mahomes in this division. The truth is that the other NFL teams are looking up at the Chiefs and their quarterback, who has won the MVP award twice and the Super Bowl twice. Meanwhile, the Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos have the tough task of facing Mahomes two times each season. Unfortunately for these teams, the results have not been good. Since he became the starting quarterback for the Kansas City team, Mahomes has won 27 out of 30 games against AFC West opponents. He's won 11 out of 11 against the Broncos, 9 out of 10 against the Raiders, and 7 out of 9 against the Chargers.

Before the 2022 season, this division was considered the toughest in the league. This was mainly because people believed that the division's four quarterbacks were strong. However, only Mahomes and the Chargers' Justin Herbert did better than expected and made it to the playoffs. And only Mahomes won a game in the playoffs. The Raiders' Derek Carr was taken out of the game after a loss to Pittsburgh on Christmas Eve and later released from the team. Russell Wilson was a big disappointment in his first games with the Broncos. Now, Las Vegas is starting fresh with Jimmy Garoppolo. Denver hopes to improve Wilson by hiring a respected coach named Sean Payton.

Out of all these teams, the Chargers seem to have the best chance to challenge the Chiefs' dominance in the division. But the Chargers must prove they can do better because they're seen as falling short of expectations. The Chiefs have won the AFC West for seven years in a row and are the favorites to win again at DraftKings. The only thing that could hurt the Chiefs' season is if Mahomes gets injured.

My model is much more bearish on the Chargers than the public. This is why we get a good price on the Chiefs to win this division again. I like it in a parlay with San Francisco.

AFC North
Cleveland +380

The Cleveland Browns are starting fresh this season. Deshaun Watson had some time to get back into the groove after missing a few games, and the struggling defense now has a new coordinator, Jim Schwartz. With a hopeful outlook on offense and a more positive view of the defense, the Browns are aiming for a comeback and a spot in the playoffs.

Offense
On the offensive side, head coach Kevin Stefanski faced challenges last season, but he managed to turn Jacoby Brissett into the leader of an offense that performed well in certain areas. By Week 11, the Browns had a top-notch passing game and a strong running attack. However, when Watson came back in Week 12, the performance seemed to decline.

The Browns have added new receivers like Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore, and Marquise Goodwin to their lineup, which should spread out the defense and provide more options for Watson. Nick Chubb, who had a great rushing season with 1,525 yards, should also benefit as the passing game continues to develop.

Of course, all of this depends on Watson returning to his previous form after his suspension so that he can make the most of the talented players around him.

Defense
Switching to the defense, the Browns were middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed per play, but they struggled with coverage breakdowns and inconsistent play throughout the season. Overall, their defensive performance was not great, and big plays were rare outside of Myles Garrett's 16 sacks.

The Browns didn't have many takeaways and gave up 2.05 points per drive. With Schwartz as the new defensive coordinator, the team has some good pieces to work with, including a strong secondary, Myles Garrett, and Juan Thornhill, a former Chiefs safety.

The Browns have also added help for Garrett regarding the pass rush, bringing in Za'Darius Smith and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and upgrading their defensive tackle position to better defend against the run.

One of the big stories in the division is Watson, who's coming back after not playing for 700 days, and the team has made changes to their wide receiver group. But the Browns have some tough challenges ahead. They need to beat the Bengals, who have been division champions for two years in a row. The Bengals were really close to being AFC champions if they didn't make a mistake against Patrick Mahomes. The Browns must also do well against the Ravens, who have mostly finished in the top two since 2015. And they have a rival team that has won 32 out of 41 games against each other in the last 20 years.

Winning the division will be a tall task, but at a price of +380, I think they win often enough to give us solid value.


Stay tuned for some more futures bets in the coming days.