NFL Bet of the Day | NFL WEEK 11 | November 19, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 33-27, +3.24u
RECAP: We lost the primetime under by a touchdown, thanks to Baltimore deciding to run up the score instead of taking their sweet time. It was a bad beat, and of course we’re going to have those - but Primetime games hurt that much more. Today we have four PRO picks, and I’ll break down my favorite, here.

November 19, 2023

Last week, we went directly against this team and it cashed out for us; this week, I’m trusting them to get a much-needed win to keep their playoff chances alive, and to gain ground in a division that has come to life over the past three weeks. 

The Green Bay Packers are hosting the Los Angeles Chargers today for a mild game at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. This is one of those matchups that you look at and think that it “just doesn’t work”, as the Chargers and Packers seem like they should never be playing. Anyways, let’s dive into the game. 

In the world of sports betting, this is deemed as a “mega sharp” bet, where we have four sharps (or more) on this game. The Sharps are absolutely hammering Los Angeles -3, and it’s for good reason; the line isn’t moving, and this could be an overvalued Green Bay team who hasn’t really been able to pick up any steam at home. 

But the Chargers have finally clicked on offense, specifically in the passing game. They rank in the top ten in both attempts and in passing yards, and Herbert ranks seventh in passer rating over the last three games. The Packers have a great passing defense, but it’s also important to look at the past three quarterbacks they’ve faced: Kenny Pickett, Brett Rypien, and they actually got smothered by Kirk Cousins until he was injured in that game. They have the pedigree, but absolutely none of the actual, tangible stats to prove that they’re a competent defense who will be able to stop the Chargers. 

The Chargers have really struggled against the pass though over the past few games, but this Packers passing attack leaves a lot to be desired. This Chargers defense has proved it can handle inept offenses, as they’ve recently handled the Jets and the Bears; and while the Packers might have better play-calling and playmakers than those teams, they may have to find a way to control the clock and wind this one down to keep the Chargers off the field. 

Looking at these two teams, this is obviously a public-sided bet, and it should be - but we also have a ton of sharp action on it, and that’s why I love it. Let’s take the Los Angeles Chargers returning to their thunderdome with a win.

PICK: Los Angeles Chargers -3

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