NFL Bet of the Day | 7-2 Run | December 3, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 42-30, +7.58u
RECAP: We’ve made quite the profit in the NFL since we last spoke,with a bunch of PRO plays cashing, including some unders parlays and a primetime under in the Bears and Vikings game. We’re up over seven and a half units, and for it not being my main sport, I’ll take this profit for sure. Let’s dive into my favorite play today.

December 3, 2023

Here’s a weird fact about today’s matchup: since these two teams came into being, the over has never hit; it’s 4-0 in its last four games, the only times these two teams have ever played each other. 

It’s going to be cool and cloudy in Washington today as the Commanders take on the high-flying Dolphins, and when you think Dolphins, of course you think Overs. They score a ton of points, and they have the capabilities to score 50 on their own. Not so fast! 

We’re seeing some good movement in this game in the Sharp Handles tool, and despite money on both sides, the total hasn’t moved all week. The Dolphins haven’t hit over 49.5 total points in any of their last five games, and their defense has really stepped it up as far as giving up points. 

And while this Washington offense led by Sam Howell and company can be really potent, this Fins defense is the centerpiece of this game. Overall this season, they rank seventh-best in total yards allowed, top-five in yards per rush, and fourth in yards per completion on the passing side of the offense. They have the second-most sacks in the league, and that’s going to be a problem for this Washington front that simply cannot block anyone. They’re second-to-last in the league in the amount of sacks/game they’re giving up. It’s going to be a trainwreck for Howell back there. 

Washington is scoring less than league average when it comes to points scored as well, and the Dolphins give up about league average. Obviously, Miami has the best offense in the league, and are literally ranked first in rushing and in passing. But if we look at their away numbers, they’re league-average when it comes to rushing the ball, and the Washington defense, even without some of their stars, should be able to generate some pressure on Tua and company. 

This is going to be a one-sided game for sure, and I believe that the Fins defense is strong enough to really pin down this Washington offense. Let’s hope that Washington’s defense shows up to limit the damage. Take the under.

PICK: Miami/Washington under 49.5

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