NFL Bet of the Day | 3-0 in Week 12! | November 26, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 38-28, +5.69u
RECAP: It was finally the day that we’ve all been waiting for on Thanksgiving, as we ATE UP the totals in all three games. We hit the Over in Detroit in a sweat fest, the Over in Dallas was easy, and we squeaked by for the under in Seattle on Thursday night by .5 points. I know some people got hurt by that hook, but we hit it, and we’ll take those. We’ve hit four straight NFL plays, let’s continue that today.

November 26, 2023

Today, two top-15 ranked defenses are playing in a Divisional battle out West - and this Division is shaping up to be a bit tighter than we thought it might be. 

Obviously the Kansas City Chiefs run the AFC West, and rightly so - they’ve got a better record than everyone and are still going to be a dominant force in the playoffs when they roll around. But they’ve been in letdown spots before and haven’t shown that they can piece it all together, and today might be that chance. 

But anyone that thinks that this game is going to be easy is mistaken - both of these defenses are stacked right now, and are playing extremely well. In fact, Kansas City is 8-2 when it comes to the under, and Las Vegas is even better, at 9-2. While these trends are certainly accounted for in the sports books, there’s also more reasons to think that this Kansas City offense won’t be as high-flying as you’d might expect. 

Our Money Handles tool is currently feasting on this game, as we see 98% of the total money placed on the under here. It’s a public-sided bet, which always scares me, but Sharp AI predicts this game going under by 3 points - it says that the O/U should actually be set at 40. 

And when you actually look at the way these teams have been performing, this game should be competitive. Las Vegas is one of the best home teams in the league, and Kansas City plays really hard away from home, going 3-1. The Raiders have a top ten home passing defense, and Maxx Crosby has been the ultimate disruptor this season, as the Raiders have only allowed 14 points per game at home.

Finally, the Chiefs’ defense has also been a major force on the road. They rank third in the league on the road in total yards allowed, they generate the third-most sacks in the league on the road, and they only allow 18 points per game on the road. 

These defenses should dominate in what many would expect to be a high-scoring divisional game. This one is going to be close, and let’s take the under in this one.

PICK: Kansas City/Las Vegas under 43.5

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