NFL Bet of the Day | 10-5 Run | December 10, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 45-33, +7.31u
RECAP: Hi, I missed you! I had a major PRO play in the Bengals/Jaguars game on Monday night, and it pushed us to 3-3 since we’ve last spoke for a loss of minimal value, at -.27 units. We weren’t able to cash our last freebie though, because Washington’s defense was literally swiss cheese. Today we head to the NFC South to try and find our winner.

December 10, 2023

The total in this game has continued to climb, and we’re seeing a lot of money on this over, which scares me; but looking at the data surrounding these teams, it’s hard to go against what we’re seeing as far as possible scoring. And in our Sharp App Projections, it’s hitting the nail on the head; let’s dive in. 

The Buccaneers are heading north to take on Divisional rival Atlanta in a matchup that could propel both of these teams to the top of the division with a win. Neither of these teams score a lot of points, as both of them are 4-8 on the season when it comes to the over. But here’s why we’re hammering the over today:

Atlanta is really, really good at home, and that’s why they’re favored, even if neither of these teams are blowing the doors off of anyone. The Falcons won a barnburner last weekend against the Jets, while the Bucs won a thriller against the Panthers, a game they should have won much more handedly.

Atlanta’s defense was its calling card early in the season, but they’re letting up much more offense than they have all season. And Tampa Bay’s defense has been straight up bad all season, with their rushing attack being the most poignant part about them; but even that has subsided over the past few games. 

This line began at 39, and has rose all the way up to 41 at most books. The Bucs’ defense is allowing 24 points per game over their last three games, and Atlanta has the third-best rushing offense at home this season. They’re also scoring 23 points per game at home over their last three.

But don’t doubt the Bucs’ offense here, either. They’re putting up 24 points per game on the road over their last three road games, and they want the division. It’s going to take points to capture it.

Let’s take the over in a line that has continued to rise over the course of the week. Sharp App Projections have this game right at 41, and we’re looking at simply three or so touchdowns per team in this game; with these offenses finally turning it on, I think that the over will come in the 3rd quarter. Let’s ride with points today. 

PICK: Tampa Bay/Atlanta over 41

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