New York Jets vs New England Patriots Matchup Preview - November 20th, 2022


Zach Wilson and the New York Jets faceoff against Mac Jones and the New England Patriots. The Patriots enter the game as a favorite (-170) as the home team. New England is currently favored by -3.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 38.0.

New England's primary disadvantage this season has been their pass offense, which has ranked #24 in football with a low 219 yards per game through the air. One consequence of this ineffectiveness has been the ability for opposing defenses to stack the box against them to stop the run, bringing up at least one extra defender 27.7% of the time. And if the opposing defense doesn't need to go all out to stop the passing game, they can focus more on stopping the run, which has led New England managing just 4.21 yards per carry -- bottom 10 in the league. When it comes to their defense, the Patriots check in at #8 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 219 yards per game against New England this year (#12 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #14 against them with 4.63 yards per ground attempt. This Patriots defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 61.2% of their passes (#3-lowest in the league). New England's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 6.73 yards per target (#6-worst in the league).

New York's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #5 in the league while allowing just 326 yards per game. Much of their success has been in shutting down the run game, holding opposing ball-carriers to the #5-least yards per carry: 4.18. That's not to take anything away from their pass defense, though, which checks in at #3 in yards per target (6.61). They've succeeded in stopping the run (in part) because of their aggressiveness in stacking the box. They've brought up a safety or extra defender 22% of the time this year, #3-most of any team in football. The Jets defensive tackles have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #4-best in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular advantage for New York given that the Patriots have struggled so much with their run game this year, managing just 4.21 yards per carry (#10-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Jets have ranked #17 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 236 yards per game (#18 in football). On the ground they've ranked #8 with 4.73 yards per carry.

New York Jets Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Zach Wilson to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (9.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).

  • Tyler Conklin has compiled far more air yards this year (45.0 per game) than he did last year (29.0 per game).

  • The New England Patriots pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.09 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the NFL.

New England Patriots Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • The New York Jets cornerbacks profile as the best collection of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

  • The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Betting Trends

  • The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)

  • The New York Jets have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.55 Units / 17% ROI)

  • Zach Wilson has hit the Interceptions Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 61% ROI)