Sharp App: Sports Betting

New York Jets vs Minnesota Vikings Matchup Preview - December 4th, 2022

Mike White and the New York Jets faceoff against Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings enter the game as a favorite (-150) as the home team. Minnesota is currently favored by -3.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 44.0.

Minnesota's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 398 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #4 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #2-most yards per game (286) against the Vikings. A big part of the problem is their inability to put pressure on the quarterback. It's taken them an average of 2.56 seconds after the snap before a defender gets close enough for the QB to feel it -- #3-slowest among all teams. Opposing wide receivers have given the Vikings the most trouble, posting 9.42 yards per target (#2-worst in football). Minnesota's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their safeties, who rank just #29 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. Minnesota's defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #7-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Vikings check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 267 yards per game (#7 in football). Their run game has ranked #17 with 4.32 yards per attempt on the ground.

New York's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #5 in the league while allowing just 328 yards per game. Much of their success has been in shutting down the run game, holding opposing ball-carriers to the #4-least yards per carry: 4.16. That's not to take anything away from their pass defense, though, which checks in at #4 in yards per target (6.91). They've succeeded in stopping the run (in part) because of their aggressiveness in stacking the box. They've brought up a safety or extra defender 22% of the time this year, #3-most of any team in football. The Jets defensive tackles have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #6-best in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Jets have ranked #19 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 226 yards per game (#20 in football). On the ground they've ranked #13 with 4.53 yards per carry.

New York Jets Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles project as the best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

  • The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Minnesota Vikings Insights

  • The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

  • Justin Jefferson has notched substantially more receiving yards per game (109.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).

  • The Sharp Model projects Justin Jefferson to total 0.59 receiving touchdowns in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

Betting Trends

  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.75 Units / 20% ROI)

  • The New York Jets have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+11.30 Units / 87% ROI)

  • Corey Davis has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 40% ROI)