New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview - December 11th, 2022

Sunday the New York Jets (7-5) will battle the Buffalo Bills (9-3). Oddsmakers peg the Bills as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 79%, leaving the Jets with a 21% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bills -10.0 with a Game Total of 43.5.

Buffalo's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #3 in football at 374 yards per game. The quality of their rushing attack has led to much of their success. The Bills 4.87 yards per carry ranks #4-best in the NFL. What makes the Bills run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 13.2% of the time, the #7-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Buffalo hasn't been thwarted. Given their ground game success, this has opened up opportunities through the air too; Buffalo's 7.6 yards per target puts them #7 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Bills check in at #11 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 237 yards per game against Buffalo this year (#17 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #8 against them with 4.35 yards per ground attempt. This Bills defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 5.64 yards per target (#3-best in the league). Buffalo's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 164 yards per game (#9-worst in the league).

New York's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #3 in the league while allowing just 324 yards per game. Much of their success has been in shutting down the run game, holding opposing ball-carriers to the #5-least yards per carry: 4.21. That's not to take anything away from their pass defense, though, which checks in at #3 in yards per target (6.76). They've succeeded in stopping the run (in part) because of their aggressiveness in stacking the box. They've brought up a safety or extra defender 22% of the time this year, #3-most of any team in football. The Jets defensive ends have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #8-best in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Jets have ranked #17 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 237 yards per game (#18 in football). On the ground they've ranked #11 with 4.63 yards per carry.

New York Jets Insights

• The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

• The Buffalo Bills defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best collection of DEs in football this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

• The Buffalo Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.59 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.

Buffalo Bills Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Josh Allen to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (28.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (15.1% in games he has played).

• Stefon Diggs has compiled quite a few more receiving yards per game (102.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).

• The Buffalo Bills have incorporated play action on 33.7% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Betting Trends

• The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 22% ROI)

• The New York Jets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.20 Units / 18% ROI)

• Zach Wilson has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.85 Units / 63% ROI)