New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings Matchup Preview - January 15th, 2023
The last time these two teams played each other was Week 16 in 2022. That game resulted in a home win for the Vikings with a final score of 27-24. Although the Vikings recorded the win, they failed to cover the -4.5 point spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 48.5 and which the Over hit.
Minnesota's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 389 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #2 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #2-most yards per game (268) against the Vikings. A big part of the problem is their inability to put pressure on the quarterback. It's taken them an average of 2.56 seconds after the snap before a defender gets close enough for the QB to feel it -- #3-slowest among all teams. Opposing wide receivers have given the Vikings the most trouble, posting 176 yards per game against this defense (#2-worst in football). Minnesota's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their safeties, who rank just #24 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. When it comes to their offense, the Vikings check in at #4 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 279 yards per game (#4 in football). Their run game has ranked #23 with 4.12 yards per attempt on the ground.
New York's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #25 in the league while allowing 361 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #4-most yards per carry: 5.28. Perhaps part of their struggle has been because they haven't stacked the box the way teams often do to try and plug up their run game issues. They've brought up a safety or extra defender just 11.4% of the time this year, #5-least of any team in football. The Giants safeties have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #3-worst in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Giants have ranked #25 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 207 yards per game (#26 in football). On the ground they've ranked #20 with 4.21 yards per carry.
New York Giants Insights
The Sharp Model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Marcus Johnson has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (16.0 per game) than he did last year (25.0 per game).
The Sharp Model projects Daniel Jones to run for 0.32 touchdowns in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
Minnesota Vikings Insights
The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The New York Giants defensive tackles rank as the best collection of DTs in the NFL this year with their pass rush.
The New York Giants defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.52 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.
The Minnesota Vikings have scored last in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 35% ROI)
The New York Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 57% ROI)
Daniel Jones has hit the Pass Attempts Over in his last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)