New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys Matchup Preview - November 24th, 2022

Editor

Thursday the New York Giants (7-3) will battle the Dallas Cowboys (7-3). Oddsmakers peg the Cowboys as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 80%, leaving the Giants with a 20% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Cowboys -10.0 with a Game Total of 45.5.

New York's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #25 in the league with a mere 301 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #5-worst in football with 198 yards per game. And when a defense doesn't have to worry about the pass, they can key in on the run, which has led to just 4.08 yards per carry for the Giants -- bottom 10 in the league. It's tough to succeed when you don't have much time to throw, as has been the case for New York. Their offensive line has ranked just #23 in pass protection. This represents a particular disadvantage for New York given that the Cowboys have excelled in stopping the pass this year, allowing just 6.92 yards per target (#5-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Giants have ranked #17 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 218 yards per game through the air against them (#18 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #28 with 5.28 yards per carry. New York has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to a 68.1% completion rate (#1-lowest). New York has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 8.98 yards per target (#3-worst).

Dallas's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 312 yards per game -- #9-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 181. A big factor in their success has been the ability to shed blocks and get to the quarterback quickly; they've averaged just 2.39 seconds after the snap before getting pressure on the QB -- #5-quickest in the league. The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing running backs, who have managed just 24 yards per game against them (#31-least in football). Dallas's best coverage unit has been their linebackers, which grade out as the #4 unit in the NFL in this regard. Dallas's pass rush has been led by their defensive ends who, ranking as the #6 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. When it comes to their offense, the Cowboys check in at #14 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 219 yards per game (#25 in football). Their run game has ranked #7 with 4.79 yards per attempt on the ground.

New York Giants Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Daniel Jones to be a more important option in his offense's running game this week (17.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (10.8% in games he has played).

  • Darius Slayton's pass-catching effectiveness has been refined this year, averaging 10.93 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.04 rate last year.

  • The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Dallas Cowboys Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • CeeDee Lamb has put up far more air yards this year (94.0 per game) than he did last year (82.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Dalton Schultz to notch 0.36 receiving TDs in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among TEs.

Betting Trends

  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.70 Units / 15% ROI)

  • The New York Giants have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 50% ROI)

  • Kenny Golladay has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 76% ROI)