New Orleans Saints vs San Francisco 49ers Matchup Preview - November 27th, 2022


Sunday the New Orleans Saints (4-7) will battle the San Francisco 49ers (6-4). Oddsmakers peg the 49ers as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 78%, leaving the Saints with a 22% chance to record a win. The current spread is the 49ers -8.5 with a Game Total of 43.5.

San Francisco's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 275 yards per game -- #1-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 3.49. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #9 in yards per target (7.27). This 49ers run defense has been anchored by their linebackers, who grade out as the #1-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the 49ers check in at #15 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 243 yards per game (#14 in football). Their run game has ranked #9 with 4.71 yards per attempt on the ground.

New Orleans's biggest strength has been their pass defense, which ranks #3 in the league while allowing just 186 yards per game this season. The Saints have done the best job shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 25 yards per game (#1-best). New Orleans's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #2 in the league in locking down route-runners. New Orleans's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their linebackers, which check in as the #2-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Saints have ranked #23 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 239 yards per game (#18 in football). On the ground they've ranked #27 with 3.89 yards per carry.

New Orleans Saints Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Juwan Johnson has posted many more air yards this season (37.0 per game) than he did last season (17.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Taysom Hill to run for 0.16 touchdowns in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers and tight ends.

San Francisco 49ers Insights

  • The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

  • The New Orleans Saints linebackers project as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

  • The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 25.0) vs. TEs this year.

Betting Trends

  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)

  • The New Orleans Saints have scored last in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.50 Units / 18% ROI)

  • Jarvis Landry has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+4.20 Units / 29% ROI)