New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Preview - January 1st, 2023
Sunday the New Orleans Saints (6-9) will battle the Philadelphia Eagles (13-2). Oddsmakers peg the Eagles as the big favorite with an implied win probablity of 67%, leaving the Saints with a 33% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Eagles -4.5 with a Game Total of 41.5.
Philadelphia's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #7 in football at 4.77 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. To that point, Philadelphia's line ranks #4-best in the league in run blocking. Given their ground game success, this has opened up opportunities through the air too; Philadelphia's 7.84 yards per target puts them #4 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Eagles check in at #6 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 216 yards per game against Philadelphia this year (#8 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #18 against them with 4.61 yards per ground attempt. This Eagles defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 60.2% of their passes (#1-lowest in the league). A strong argument could be made that their worst position group is their safeties, who rank just #32 in the league in coverage.
New Orleans's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #26 in the league with a mere 296 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #1-worst in football with just 3.7 yards per carry. This is even sadder because they've faced a stacked box the #3-least of any team in the league at 23.5%. Even without that extra tackler that teams sometimes bring up near the line of scrimmage, the Saints have still struggled on the ground. In terms of their defense, the Saints have ranked #8 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 201 yards per game through the air against them (#1 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #23 with 4.76 yards per carry. New Orleans has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 29 yards per game (#1-best). Positionally, perhaps their worst defensive asset has been their cornerbacks, which rank just #32 in the league in locking down route-runners.
New Orleans Saints Insights
The Sharp Model projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-most run-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.5% run rate.
Andy Dalton's pass-game effectiveness has gotten better this season, accumulating 7.41 yards-per-target vs just 6.19 rate last season.
The Sharp Model projects Taysom Hill to run for 0.16 touchdowns in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among WRs and TEs.
Philadelphia Eagles Insights
The Sharp Model projects Gardner Minshew to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (17.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.7% in games he has played).
Dallas Goedert has notched far fewer air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (52.0 per game).
The New Orleans Saints defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.58 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in football.
Betting Trends
The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.70 Units / 53% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.70 Units / 26% ROI)
Jarvis Landry has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.90 Units / 36% ROI)