New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022


Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints faceoff against Marcus Mariota and the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints enter the game as a big favorite (-230) despite being on the road. New Orleans is currently favored by -5.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 42.5.

New Orleans's offense, which only averages 276 yards per game and is ranked #30 in the league, has been their biggest weakness. Their passing attack has been their biggest offensive shortcoming, ranking 1-worst in football with just 198 yards per game. Defenses have been free to stack the box against them to stifle the run a staggering 23.5% of the time, largely due to their inability to get their passing game going. And the Saints have only been able to muster 3.43 yards per carry (bottom 10 in the league), because the defense hasn't had to worry about an effective pass game allowing them to key in on the run. The Saints are currently ranked #3 in the league in total defensive yards allowed per game. Ranked #13 in football, they've given up 223 passing yards per game. Opposing ball-carriers have added 3.8 yards per carry to that total (#1 in the league). New Orleans has been at their best against running backs, holding them to a completion rate of just 71.9% of their targets (#2-best in football). New Orleans has been at their worst against wide receivers, allowing 154 yards per game (#9-worst in football).

Ranking #24 in the NFL and with only 314 yards per game, Atlanta's main weakness has been their offense. With only 3.83 yards per carry, just #26-best in football this year, their inept running game has been the main source of that weakness. This is even more disturbing considering that they have faced a stacked box the #10-least of any team in the league, at 17.6%. The Falcons haven't been able to get anything going on the ground even without an extra tackler near the line of scrimmage. In terms of total defensive yards allowed per game, the Falcons are ranked #26 in the league. Their passing defense has allowed 237 yards per game, good for #20-place. They've allowed opposing ball-carriers to gain 4.61 yards per attempt (#21 in football). Atlanta has been at their worst against wide receivers, giving up a completion rate of 69.7% of their targets (#3-highest in football).

New Orleans Saints Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Jameis Winston to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (17.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.9% in games he has played).

  • The New Orleans Saints defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

  • THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accumulate 0.22 receiving touchdowns in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.

Atlanta Falcons Insights

  • The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 58.5 plays per game.

  • Marcus Mariota has been among the bottom quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging 1.0 yards per game while checking in at the 4th percentile.

  • The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.91 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the league.

Betting Trends

  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)

  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.65 Units / 48% ROI)

  • Mike Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 55% ROI)