New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings Matchup Preview - November 24th, 2022


Thursday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the New England Patriots (6-4) and Minnesota Vikings (8-2). Oddsmakers peg the Vikings as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 57%, leaving the Patriots with a 43% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Vikings -2.5 with a Game Total of 42.5.

Minnesota's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 382 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #5 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #3-most yards per game (263) against the Vikings. A big part of the problem is their inability to put pressure on the quarterback. It's taken them an average of 2.56 seconds after the snap before a defender gets close enough for the QB to feel it -- #3-slowest among all teams. Opposing running backs have given the Vikings the most trouble, posting 46 yards per game against this defense (#2-worst in football). Minnesota's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their safeties, who rank just #27 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. Minnesota's defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #9-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Vikings check in at #9 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 263 yards per game (#7 in football). Their run game has ranked #11 with 4.56 yards per attempt on the ground.

It would be great to say something notable about New England, but they been about as unremarkable as a team can be this season. Offensively, they rank #19 in the league in yards per game (325). They haven't been strong or deficient in either facet of their offense, ranking #21 in passing yards per game (225) and #21 in yards per carry (4.19). They've been middle of the pack on defense as well, ranking #5 in yards allowed per game (308). Pass defense and run defense? You guessed it: #11 and #12 in the NFL, respectively. It's worth noting that they've run a very slow offense this year. They've averaged just 29.09 seconds per play, #23-slowest in the league. Perhaps of note is that, to their credit, they've run some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their plays this year, #8-most in the league. Mixing up looks and confusing the defense can help an otherwise lackluster offense at least keep the defense on their toes. In terms of their offense, the Patriots have ranked #19 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 225 yards per game (#21 in football). On the ground they've ranked #21 with 4.19 yards per carry.

New England Patriots Insights

  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

  • Rhamondre Stevenson has accumulated quite a few more receiving yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (9.0).

  • The Sharp Model projects Rhamondre Stevenson to total 0.18 receiving touchdowns in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

Minnesota Vikings Insights

  • Alexander Mattison has been a less important option in his team's running game this season (19.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (34.3%).

  • Justin Jefferson has accrued far fewer air yards this year (108.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).

  • The New England Patriots pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.15 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.

Betting Trends

  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.30 Units / 41% ROI)

  • The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 34% ROI)

  • Alexander Mattison has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 50% ROI)