New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers Matchup Preview - October 2nd, 2022

Editor

Sunday the New England Patriots (1-2) will battle the Green Bay Packers (2-1). Oddsmakers peg the Packers as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 79%, leaving the Patriots with a 21% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Packers -9.5 with a Game Total of 40.0.

Green Bay's primary disadvantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a monstrous 4.88 yards per attempt on the ground this year, sliding them into the #5 spot among the league's worst. When teams struggle defending the run, they often bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage. The Packers have elected not to do much of this, however, stacking the box the #2-least of any team in football -- just 8.8% of the time. Packers defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #8-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for Green Bay given that the Patriots ground game has been so good this year, rushing for 4.4 yards per carry (#14-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Packers check in at #7 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 286 yards per game (#8 in football). Their run game has ranked #7 with 4.88 yards per attempt on the ground.

New England's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #6 in the league while allowing just 316 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #3-least yards per game: 198. The Patriots have done the best job shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 24 yards per game (#1-best). New England's best position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank #4 in the league in locking down route-runners. In terms of their offense, the Patriots have ranked #10 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 260 yards per game (#12 in football). On the ground they've ranked #14 with 4.4 yards per carry.

New England Patriots Insights

  • The New England Patriots will be rolling with backup quarterback Brian Hoyer in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

  • Nelson Agholor's pass-game effectiveness has improved this season, notching 12.25 yards-per-target vs just 8.39 mark last season.

  • The Sharp Model projects Brian Hoyer to rush for 0.05 TDs in this week's contest, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.

Green Bay Packers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Allen Lazard to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game this week (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.1% in games he has played).

  • Aaron Jones has posted a whopping 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • The Green Bay Packers pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.95 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-least in the league.

Betting Trends

  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)

  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.50 Units / 19% ROI)

  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)