New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022

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Mac Jones and the New England Patriots faceoff against Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins enter the game as a favorite (-170) as the home team. Miami is currently favored by -3.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 46.5.

Ranking #26 in the NFL and with only 306 yards per game, Miami's main weakness has been their offense. With only 3.52 yards per carry, just #29-best in football this year, their inept running game has been the main source of that weakness. The offensive line is a critical component of any team's ground game. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for him, but even the worst running back can find success if he's given enough room. Unsurprisingly, Miami's offensive line is ranked #2-worst by that metric. Miami has only averaged 6.33 yards per target, bottom 10 in football, owing largely to a lack of opportunities created by their failures on the ground. In terms of total defensive yards allowed per game, the Dolphins are ranked #17 in the league. Their passing defense has allowed 238 yards per game, good for #22-place. They've allowed opposing ball-carriers to gain 4.56 yards per attempt (#18 in football). The Dolphins have been at their best against running backs, holding them to just 5.13 yards per target (#1-best in football). Miami has been at their worst against tight ends, giving up 9 yards per target (#2-worst in football).

Ranked #6 in the league and allowing only 320 yards per game, New England's success has been driven by their defense. There's seemingly nowhere to throw for opposing QBs, who've been limited to only 198 yards per game (#4-least in the league). The Patriots have excelled at limiting opposing tight ends, who are averaging just 25 yards per game against them (#1-best). Ranked #3 in the league in coverage, New England's safeties have led the way. The Dolphins have been particularly bad through the air this season (6.33 yards per target, #5-worst), so New England's dominance in pass defense may be the deciding factor in this matchup. The Patriots are currently ranked #11 in the league in total offensive yards per game. Ranked #13 in football, they've passed for 260 yards per game. They've also added 4.54 yards per carry (#7 in the league).

New England Patriots Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 43.9% red zone run rate.

  • Hunter Henry has notched a colossal 46.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among TEs.

  • The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Miami Dolphins Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (14.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.2% in games he has played).

  • The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.

  • THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to compile 0.45 receiving touchdowns in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

Betting Trends

  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+8.50 Units / 45% ROI)

  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.75 Units / 31% ROI)

  • Damien Harris has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.55 Units / 45% ROI)