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Monday Night Football: Bears at Vikings

Anthony P

The Bottom Line article will lead us in making the right call on high-profile games. I will cover TNF, SNF, and MNF. I will also cover big baseball games, the NBA, and the NHL.

As the Monday night football game approaches, the spotlight turns to a clash between the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings, promising to be a game full of surprises and crucial betting decisions. According to ESPN, if the Vikings cover the spread, it would mark a record-setting week for favorites in the NFL, with a potential 13-2 record against the spread (ATS). This is a remarkable statistic, indicating a challenging week for the books.

Market Movements and Betting Angles

The betting line for the Vikings has seen some fluctuation, opening at -3, peaking at -4, and settling around -3 to -3.5. Despite this, an intriguing 65% of the handle is leaning towards the Bears, suggesting a divide among sharps on the game's outcome. This indicates that there are different sets of sharps betting on both sides, making the game's prediction even more challenging.

Analyzing Team Dynamics

The Bears, with Justin Fields back at the helm, showed a significant uplift in their game against the Lions, despite requiring four turnovers to maintain a competitive edge. Fields has been a game-changer for Chicago, enhancing their offensive potential. However, there's a note of caution: the Bears' offense, despite being ranked ninth in Offensive DVOA, has shown inconsistency, and their late conservatism against the Lions raises questions about their ability to close out games.

On the other side, the Vikings, led by Josh Dobbs, have been inconsistent, showing vulnerability despite some strong performances. The Vikings' mediocre running game faces a challenge against the Bears' defense, which ranks 11th in Defensive DVOA against the run. Additionally, Dobbs' performance under pressure, as observed in previous games, adds another layer of uncertainty.

The Over/Under Dilemma

The primetime games this season have been overwhelmingly trending towards the under, with a staggering 27-8 record. However, this matchup, with its potential for unpredictability and explosive plays, especially from Fields, suggests a deviation from this trend. Fields’ ability to create big plays, coupled with both teams' propensity for turnovers, sets the stage for a potentially high-scoring affair. Moreover, the Over has hit in two of the Vikings' recent games, and their past performances against teams with a high pass completion rate further lean towards a higher-scoring game.

Final Betting Recommendation

Taking into account the dynamic offenses, the quarterbacks' playmaking abilities, and the recent trends, this game presents a ripe scenario for an over. Despite the historical trend of unders in primetime games, the unique elements of this matchup – Fields’ dynamism, the Bears' offensive potential, and the Vikings' vulnerability – suggest a game that could surpass the total points line. Hence, my recommendation would be to bet on the over, expecting an exciting, high-scoring game that defies the prevailing under trend in primetime matchups.

Let's take a look at the game and the total.

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