Mitch's NFL Bet of the Day | September 24, 2023
In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport.
OVERALL RECORD: 8-7, +0.94uRECAP: This has been a slow-moving NFL season for me, but last Sunday was incredibly successful through all of my picks, going 3-1 including a CASH on the over in Detroit between the Lions and the Seahawks, which went way over. Today I have two picks and two parlays posted in our PRO Discord, so be sure to use the link down below to join PRO and get all of my picks.
September 24, 2023PICK: Minnesota Vikings MLOkay, out of how many articles that I’ve written for Sharp for the NFL season, I think I’ve picked the Vikings the most so far, which is a little pathetic. But today, I absolutely love the Vikings and their offensive attack against the Chargers defensive backs today.
Here’s a crazy stat: these two teams have played five times in the history of the NFL. The Vikings are 5-0 against the spread in those games, and are 4-1 straight up. That didn’t really factor into my pick, but it’s definitely a fun fact.
It hasn’t felt like this Vikings offense has “eaten” so far this season, but they really have; it’s their defense that’s been letting them down. Kirk Cousins has thrown 44 pass attempts in each game so far this season, and has around 350 yards/game to show for it - and the best part is that he’s spreading it around this year. He has too many weapons to choose from, and there’s no way that these defenses can focus on just one player; Addison might get open, or Hockenson might get open, and obviously Justin Jefferson is always open; but now, they have also found Alexander Mattison in the flats as well as a drop-off. There’s a million people he can pass to effectively.
And these Chargers defensive backs are ranked the literal worst in the league in yards allowed, yards per play, and near last in yards per completion. If Cousins is connecting on 30+ passes a game and their defense is giving up 13 yards/completion, this is going to be a long day on the defensive side of the ball.
My only worry is that Justin Herbert has a “get-right” game in him, but we just haven’t seen him yet. For his contract, he should be winning some games on his own, and he just hasn’t been able to connect with his receivers like we’d expect this season. They have the 14th-ranked passing offense in the league by yards/completion, and last week without Ekeler, this offense looked lost. They’ve lost two straight one-score games, and this one is expected to be tight, too - but Cousins is the X-Factor here.
During his Vikings tenure, during day games, he’s 38-24-1. That’s good for a 61% winning percentage. That, combined with his clicking offense, tells me that we should be all over the Vikings today.
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