Mitch's NFL Bet of the Day | October 26, 2023
In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport.
OVERALL RECORD: 24-21, +1.25uRECAP: Once again, our downward spiral of the NFL continues as we lost on our parlay this past Monday. The NFL this past week was NOT good to me, but it’s a new dawn, and this week, every single team is playing (no teams are on byes, which is so weird). Let’s get into Thursday Night.
October 26, 2023PICK: Tampa Bay/Buffalo under 43.5Depending on your book, this line can look different. Using the Sharp App comparative lines, this line is anywhere from 42-44 right now, and so we’ll settle right near the top of that line for this under at 43.5.
The biggest piece of evidence that I’m using from the Sharp App is actually in our Top Props Proptimizer, which PRO Subscribers have access to every single day for every single sport. Tonight, our Proptimizer has Josh Allen at under 262 passing yards, and to me, that screams under – as the Buffalo Bills can be a tough team when their running game is on, as we’ve seen in previous weeks.
The problem is that both of these offenses have seemed fraudulent from time to time this season, despite having many weapons on both offenses. The Buccaneers are unders machines, as they’re currently 1-5 on the season when it comes to the overall game total, and that’s a testament to their good defense and horrible offense. When you watch the Bucs, something just seems off about the tempo of the offense, and they haven’t been able to get their running game off of the ground at all this season. Especially over their last three games, the Buccos are towards the last in the league in yards per rush, and overall low in QB Rating. They’ve been able to air the ball out because of their talented receivers, but this Buffalo defensive unit is hungry, because everyone is talking about how bad and banged up they are.
On the other side, we’re seeing an effective offense that turns the ball over way too much. In order to calm down on the turnovers, teams have to slow the pace down; especially coming off of a humiliating weekend and getting bruised up by New England, Josh Allen will probably be relied on more on the ground than through the air, which is why our Proptimizer says what it says.
Tampa has a great rushing defense, but can’t defend the pass at all, so I will put my faith in the Proptimizer that Josh Allen will be contained, and the Buccos will continue to be inept on offense. Let’s take the under.
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