Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders Matchup Preview - November 6th, 2022

Editor

The Washington Commanders come in as 3.0 point home underdog as they play the Minnesota Vikings at FedExField Sunday. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 8 in 2019. That game resulted in a road win for the Vikings with a final score of 19-9.

Washington's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #28 in football with a low 3.7 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. Unfortunately for Washington, their line ranks #5-worst in the league in run blocking. Perhaps because they routinely failt to successfully establish the run, Washington has also lacked effectiveness through the air. They've scraped together a measly 6.5 yards per target, ranking the bottom 10 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Commanders check in at #17 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 238 yards per game against Washington this year (#18 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #17 against them with 4.68 yards per ground attempt. This Commanders defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 30 yards per game (#2-best in the league). Washington's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 9.58 yards per target (#3-worst in the league).

Minnesota's biggest strength has been their run defense, which ranks #5 in the league while allowing just 4.17 yards per carry this season. The Vikings defensive tackles have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #1-best in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular advantage for Minnesota given that the Commanders have struggled so much with their run game this year, managing just 3.7 yards per carry (#5-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Vikings have ranked #10 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 257 yards per game (#9 in football). On the ground they've ranked #17 with 4.59 yards per carry.

Minnesota Vikings Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Kirk Cousins to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (6.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.4% in games he has played).

  • Justin Jefferson has posted substantially more receiving yards per game (103.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).

  • The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Washington Commanders Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Antonio Gibson has notched many more air yards this year (8.0 per game) than he did last year (-2.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Antonio Gibson to compile 0.18 receiving touchdowns in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.

Betting Trends

  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+3.20 Units / 37% ROI)

  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)

  • Alexander Mattison has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 62% ROI)