Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers Matchup Preview - January 1st, 2023
The Minnesota Vikings come in as 3.0 point road underdog as they travel to Lambeau Field to play the Green Bay Packers. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 1 in 2022. That game resulted in a road win for the Vikings with a final score of 23-7. The Vikings entered that game as a slight road favorite. They were favored by 1.5 points before covering the spread. The Game Total for that game was 46.5 and which the Under hit.
Minnesota's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #31 in the league while allowing 407 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #2-most yards per game: 289. They've had a hard time getting to the quarterback quickly, taking 2.56 seconds after the snap (on average) before applying pressure -- #3-slowest in the league. The Vikings have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 189 yards per game (#3-worst). Minnesota's worst position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank just #26 in the league in locking down route-runners. In terms of their offense, the Vikings have ranked #7 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 276 yards per game (#5 in football). On the ground they've ranked #22 with 4.19 yards per carry.
Green Bay's primary advantage has been their pass defense, which has allowed a scant 210 yards per game through the air -- #3-best in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing tight ends, who have managed just 38 yards per game against them (#28-least in football). Green Bay's best coverage unit has been their cornerbacks, which grade out as the #4 unit in the NFL in this regard. Green Bay's pass rush has been led by their defensive tackles who, ranking as the #10 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. When it comes to their offense, the Packers check in at #11 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 246 yards per game (#11 in football). Their run game has ranked #12 with 4.58 yards per attempt on the ground.
Minnesota Vikings Insights
The Sharp Model projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.75 seconds per snap.
Justin Jefferson has accrued substantially more receiving yards per game (111.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.77 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the league.
Green Bay Packers Insights
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Allen Lazard has put up far more air yards this year (93.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Betting Trends
The Green Bay Packers have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.65 Units / 42% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.25 Units / 12% ROI)
Justin Jefferson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 31% ROI)