Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Matchup Preview - January 8th, 2023
The Chicago Bears come in as 6.5 point home underdog as they play the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field Sunday. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 5 in 2022. That game resulted in a road win for the Vikings with a final score of 29-22. Although the Vikings recorded the win, they failed to cover the -8.5 point spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 44.0 and which the Over hit.
Chicago's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #32 in football with a low 250 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #32 in the league with just 156 yards per game. When it comes to their defense, the Bears check in at #25 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 220 yards per game against Chicago this year (#13 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #29 against them with 5.29 yards per ground attempt. This Bears defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 38 yards per game (#3-best in the league). Chicago's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 9.84 yards per target (#1-worst in the league).
Minnesota's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #31 in the league while allowing 404 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #2-most yards per game: 283. They've had a hard time getting to the quarterback quickly, taking 2.56 seconds after the snap (on average) before applying pressure -- #3-slowest in the league. The Vikings have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 184 yards per game (#2-worst). Minnesota's worst position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank just #26 in the league in locking down route-runners. In terms of their offense, the Vikings have ranked #8 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 276 yards per game (#5 in football). On the ground they've ranked #23 with 4.13 yards per carry.
Minnesota Vikings Insights
The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Justin Jefferson has compiled far fewer air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Chicago Bears Insights
The Sharp Model projects Nathan Peterman to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (14.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.4% in games he has played).
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the best DT corps in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Sharp Model projects Cole Kmet to total 0.18 receiving touchdowns in this game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Betting Trends
The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 53% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.95 Units / 105% ROI)