Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview - November 13th, 2022


The Minnesota Vikings come in as 6.5 point road underdog as they travel to Highmark Stadium to play the Buffalo Bills. It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The Bills won by double digits at home, outscoring the Vikings 27-6 in Week 3 of 2018.

Buffalo's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #4 in the NFL at 371 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Bills 297 yards per game through the air ranks #3-best in football this year. They haven’t made things easy for opposing defense given they they've also positioned themselves in the top 10 on the ground as well, rushing for 4.77 yards per carry. It should also be said that opposing defenses have stacked the box a massive 13.2% of the time against the Bills in an attempt to keep their run game under control. Of course, this means fewer defenders back in coverage, which has opener up opportunities through the air for Buffalo. When it comes to their defense, the Bills check in at #5 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 221 yards per game against Buffalo this year (#12 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #8 against them with 4.3 yards per ground attempt. This Bills defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 6.1 yards per target (#4-best in the league). Buffalo's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have caught 87.5% of their passes (#4-highest in the league).

Minnesota's biggest strength has been their run defense, which ranks #5 in the league while allowing just 4.17 yards per carry this season. The Vikings defensive tackles have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #1-best in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Vikings have ranked #12 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 260 yards per game (#8 in football). On the ground they've ranked #20 with 4.35 yards per carry.

Minnesota Vikings Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Adam Thielen to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack near the end zone this week (21.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.1% in games he has played).

  • Justin Jefferson has accrued a lot more receiving yards per game (104.0) this season than he did last season (90.0).

  • The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

Buffalo Bills Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Stefon Diggs has notched many more air yards this year (122.0 per game) than he did last year (115.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Stefon Diggs to accrue 0.63 receiving touchdowns this week, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.

Betting Trends

  • The Buffalo Bills have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)

  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.00 Units / 28% ROI)

  • K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.70 Units / 55% ROI)