Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Preview - September 19th, 2022

Editor

Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings faceoff against Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles enter the game as a favorite (-135) as the home team. Philadelphia is currently favored by -2.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 50.5.

Philadelphia's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 378 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #4 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #6-most yards per game (252) against the Eagles. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their run defense, which has landed them in the #23 spot in terms of yards per carry (4.69). A big part of the problem is their inability to put pressure on the quarterback. It's taken them an average of 2.56 seconds after the snap before a defender gets close enough for the QB to feel it -- #3-slowest among all teams. Opposing wide receivers have given the Eagles the most trouble, posting 176 yards per game against this defense (#2-worst in football). Philadelphia's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their cornerbacks, who rank just #32 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. When it comes to their offense, the Eagles check in at #14 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 253 yards per game (#15 in football). Their run game has ranked #14 with 4.35 yards per attempt on the ground.

Minnesota's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #29 in the league while allowing 378 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #6-most yards per game: 252. That's not to give any unnecessary credit to their run defense, though, which checks in at #10-worst in yards per carry (4.69). They've had a hard time getting to the quarterback quickly, taking 2.56 seconds after the snap (on average) before applying pressure -- #3-slowest in the league. The Vikings have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 176 yards per game (#2-worst). Minnesota's worst position group in coverage has been their cornerbacks, which rank just #32 in the league in locking down route-runners. In terms of their offense, the Vikings have ranked #14 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 253 yards per game (#15 in football). On the ground they've ranked #14 with 4.35 yards per carry.

Minnesota Vikings Insights

  • The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

  • Justin Jefferson has put up a whopping 127.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among wide receivers.

  • The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Philadelphia Eagles Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (34.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (20.9% in games he has played).

  • The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks grade out as the best group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

  • THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to rush for 0.43 touchdowns in this contest, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)

  • Miles Sanders has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+3.05 Units / 20% ROI)