Sharp App: Sports Betting

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Matchup Preview - January 1st, 2023

Sunday the Miami Dolphins (8-7) will battle the New England Patriots (7-8). Oddsmakers peg the Patriots as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 60%, leaving the Dolphins with a 40% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Patriots -3.0 with a Game Total of 41.5.

New England's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 334 yards per game -- #8-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #5-least yards per game: 4.21. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #9 in yards per target (7.31). A big factor in their success has been their aggressiveness in stacking the box. They've brought a safety or extra defender up near the line of scrimmage 19.9% of the time this season, #7-most of any team in the league. When it comes to their offense, the Patriots check in at #19 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 221 yards per game (#23 in football). Their run game has ranked #14 with 4.51 yards per attempt on the ground.

Miami's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #23 in the league while allowing 368 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #6-most yards per game: 260. The Dolphins have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing tight ends, allowing them to complete 81.7% of their targets (#1-highest in football). Miami's worst position group in coverage has been their cornerbacks, which rank just #27 in the league in locking down route-runners. In terms of their offense, the Dolphins have ranked #11 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 271 yards per game (#7 in football). On the ground they've ranked #13 with 4.52 yards per carry.

Miami Dolphins Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Raheem Mostert to be a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this week (42.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (58.6% in games he has played).

  • Tyreek Hill has compiled many more receiving yards per game (99.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).

  • The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

New England Patriots Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Hunter Henry has put up quite a few less air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Rhamondre Stevenson to notch 0.16 receiving TDs in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among running backs.

Betting Trends

  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.30 Units / 14% ROI)

  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.55 Units / 47% ROI)

  • Mike Gesicki has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)