Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers Matchup Preview - December 11th, 2022
Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins faceoff against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Dolphins enter the game as a favorite (-165) despite being on the road. Miami is currently favored by -3.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 54.5.
Miami's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #4 in the league with 372 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #3-best in football with 292 yards per game. It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 12.1% of the time against the Dolphins in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Miami's offense to succeed through the air. In terms of their defense, the Dolphins have ranked #14 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 245 yards per game through the air against them (#20 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #19 with 4.6 yards per carry. Miami has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.66 yards per target (#5-best). Miami has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 80.5% completion rate (#3-highest).
Los Angeles's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 377 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #8 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #1-most yards per carry: 5.71. When teams struggle defending the run, they often bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage. The Chargers have elected not to do much of this, however, stacking the box the #10-least of any team in football -- just 13.8% of the time. Chargers defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #2-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Chargers check in at #14 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 277 yards per game (#6 in football). Their run game has ranked #27 with 3.91 yards per attempt on the ground.
Miami Dolphins Insights
Tyreek Hill has posted quite a few more air yards this year (137.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
The Miami Dolphins have utilized play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Los Angeles Chargers Insights
The Sharp Model projects Justin Herbert to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (13.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.2% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins linebackers profile as the best group of LBs in the league this year when it comes to pass rush.
The Sharp Model projects Austin Ekeler to total 0.41 receiving TDs in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Betting Trends
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.55 Units / 79% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Sony Michel has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.30 Units / 65% ROI)