Miami Dolphins vs Chicago Bears Matchup Preview - November 6th, 2022


Sunday the Miami Dolphins (5-3) will battle the Chicago Bears (3-5). Oddsmakers peg the Dolphins as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 64%, leaving the Bears with a 36% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Dolphins -4.0 with a Game Total of 46.0.

Miami's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #6 in the league with 366 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #3-best in football with 294 yards per game. It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 12.1% of the time against the Dolphins in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Miami's offense to succeed through the air. In terms of their defense, the Dolphins have ranked #16 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 258 yards per game through the air against them (#23 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #14 with 4.49 yards per carry. Positionally, perhaps their best defensive asset has been their defensive ends, which rank #6 in the league in terms of stopping the run. Miami has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 7.63 yards per target (#2-worst).

Chicago's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #32 in football with a low 267 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #32 in the league with just 151 yards per game. When it comes to their defense, the Bears check in at #15 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 199 yards per game against Chicago this year (#3 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #28 against them with 5.21 yards per ground attempt. This Bears defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 128 yards per game (#3-best in the league). Chicago's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have caught 68% of their passes (#9-highest in the league).

Miami Dolphins Insights

  • Tyreek Hill has put up quite a few more air yards this season (135.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).

  • The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Chicago Bears Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Justin Fields to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (32.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (14.2% in games he has played).

  • The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • The Sharp Model projects Justin Fields to rush for 0.39 TDs this week, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.

Betting Trends

  • The Chicago Bears have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+3.15 Units / 22% ROI)

  • The Miami Dolphins have scored last in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 33% ROI)

  • Teddy Bridgewater has hit the TD Passes Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 54% ROI)