Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview - January 15th, 2023


Sunday the Miami Dolphins (9-8) will battle the Buffalo Bills (13-3). Oddsmakers peg the Bills as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 88%, leaving the Dolphins with a 12% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bills -14.0 with a Game Total of 44.5.

Buffalo's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #1 in football at 5.04 yards per carry. What makes the Bills run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 13.2% of the time, the #7-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Buffalo hasn't been thwarted. Given their ground game success, this has opened up opportunities through the air too; Buffalo's 7.58 yards per target puts them #7 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Bills check in at #1 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 208 yards per game against Buffalo this year (#12 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 against them with 4.34 yards per ground attempt. This Bills defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 32 yards per game (#2-best in the league). Buffalo's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 148 yards per game (#9-worst in the league).

Miami's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #8 in the league with 354 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #6-best in football with 267 yards per game. It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 12.1% of the time against the Dolphins in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Miami's offense to succeed through the air. In terms of their defense, the Dolphins have ranked #18 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 240 yards per game through the air against them (#27 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #10 with 4.41 yards per carry. Miami has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.64 yards per target (#8-best). Miami has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 81.8% completion rate (#1-highest).

Miami Dolphins Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Skylar Thompson to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (10.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.4% in games he has played).

  • Jaylen Waddle's receiving efficiency has gotten better this year, notching 10.41 yards-per-target compared to just 7.47 figure last year.

  • The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Buffalo Bills Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 128.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Gabe Davis has posted many more air yards this season (95.0 per game) than he did last season (63.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Josh Allen to pass for 2.00 TDs in this week's game, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.

Betting Trends

  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.80 Units / 37% ROI)

  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.70 Units / 34% ROI)

  • Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)