Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview - December 17th, 2022
Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins faceoff against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. The Bills enter the game as a huge favorite (-340) as the home team. Buffalo is currently favored by -7.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 43.5.
Buffalo's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #5 in the NFL at 362 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Bills 276 yards per game through the air ranks #6-best in football this year. They haven’t made things easy for opposing defense given they they've also positioned themselves in the top 10 on the ground as well, rushing for 4.76 yards per carry. It should also be said that opposing defenses have stacked the box a massive 13.2% of the time against the Bills in an attempt to keep their run game under control. Of course, this means fewer defenders back in coverage, which has opener up opportunities through the air for Buffalo. When it comes to their defense, the Bills check in at #12 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 242 yards per game against Buffalo this year (#20 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #7 against them with 4.25 yards per ground attempt. This Bills defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 5.54 yards per target (#4-best in the league). Buffalo's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 170 yards per game (#6-worst in the league).
Miami's biggest strength has been their passing offense, ranking #5 in the league with 278 yards per game through the air. It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 12.1% of the time against the Dolphins in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Miami's offense to succeed through the air. In terms of their defense, the Dolphins have ranked #18 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 256 yards per game through the air against them (#25 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #16 with 4.58 yards per carry. Miami has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.83 yards per target (#8-best). Miami has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 81.1% completion rate (#2-highest).
Miami Dolphins Insights
The weatherman calls for snow in this game... which generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Tyreek Hill has notched far more air yards this season (138.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
The Sharp Model projects Tyreek Hill to notch 0.44 receiving TDs in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
Buffalo Bills Insights
The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the best group of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
Betting Trends
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 23% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.15 Units / 43% ROI)
Trent Sherfield has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)