Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens Matchup Preview - September 18th, 2022
The Miami Dolphins come in as 3.5 point road underdog as they travel to M&T Bank Stadium to play the Baltimore Ravens. The last time these teams faced was Week 10 of 2021 when the Dolphins pulled off an upset at home, defeating the Ravens 10-22. Miami entered that game as a 8.5 point road underog. They had an implied win probablity of only 24% before pulling of a huge upset. The Game Total for that game was 46.5 and which the Under hit.
Baltimore's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #26 in football with a low 305 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their ground attack, clocking in at #29 in the league with just 3.47 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. Unfortunately for Baltimore, their line ranks #2-worst in the league in run blocking. Perhaps because they routinely failt to successfully establish the run, Baltimore has also lacked effectiveness through the air. They've scraped together a measly 6.38 yards per target, ranking the bottom 10 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Ravens check in at #17 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 236 yards per game against Baltimore this year (#20 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #18 against them with 4.54 yards per ground attempt. This Ravens defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 4.98 yards per target (#1-best in the league). Baltimore's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 8.94 yards per target (#1-worst in the league).
Miami's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #26 in the league with a mere 305 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #4-worst in football with just 3.47 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and the worst running back can find success if he's given open space. It should come as no surprise then that Miami's o-line ranks #2-worst in this regard. In failing to successfully establish the run, Miami has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.38 yards per target, which ranks them #28 in football. In terms of their defense, the Dolphins have ranked #17 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 236 yards per game through the air against them (#20 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #18 with 4.54 yards per carry. Miami has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 4.98 yards per target (#1-best). Miami has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 8.94 yards per target (#1-worst).
Miami Dolphins Insights
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 117.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Alec Ingold has compiled a colossal 8.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to notch 0.42 receiving TDs in this game, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among WRs.
Baltimore Ravens Insights
The Baltimore Ravens O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens linebackers rank as the 5th-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season with their pass rush.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.16 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-most in the NFL.
Betting Trends
The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+9.50 Units / 46% ROI)
Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 42% ROI)