Main Slate Week 7 NFL Props With Adam Strangis

We've got another 10 games on the main slate for the NFL this week with one game standing far above the rest with an O/U over 55 points. There are going to be plenty of options to choose from this week at some point, but a lot of numbers don't look appealing. We'll be judicious with our picks and stay tuned to the Discord for any updates! 

Cordarrelle Patterson Over 35.5 Rushing Yards at -120 

This will be a first as far as betting on Patterson's rushing upside but it's justified in this spot. First, the last time we saw the Falcons was the first time Patterson had more carries than Mike Davis. The Dolphins have allowed 4.4 yards per carry which is 22nd in the league along with the seventh-most rushing yards in football. The DVOA is ranked 19th and that doesn't give us any reason to not attack this. With Patterson continuing to expand his role in the offense, we have a good shot at double-digit carries and we're under 40 yards needed. 

Ricky Seals-Jones Over 38.5 Receiving Yards at -120

There were rumblings that Ryan Fitzpatrick may have made it back for this game but that doesn't appear to be the case yet. Taylor Heinicke is still at the helm and Seals-Jones has seen 15 targets over the past two weeks and a total of 99 receiving yards. Washington enters the game as a 7.5 point underdog and we can certainly project a negative game script for them. That means a lot of passing attempts and Seals-Jones is going to continue to be an important part of the offense. He's the secondary target in this offense and should see at least six targets. 

Darrell Henderson Jr. Over 81.5 Rushing Yards at -115 

Some may look at this game and see the Rams as the heaviest favorite on the slate and pass altogether. I see it as a running back who had 21 carries last week even though the Rams were up by over 28 points at one juncture. If he gets 16-18 carries again this week, Henderson should be able to hammer this prop. Detroit is 26th in DVOA against the run, they are 18th in yards per carry allowed, and they've given up the sixth-most rushing yards. Henderson is ninth in rushing yards on the year and he's second among backs who have only played five games. 

Darrel Williams Over 56.5 Rushing Yards at -115

This is the game that everyone wants to get a piece of and for right now, there aren't a lot of options. Tyreek Hill has not practiced yet this week so he's a major portion of what we can bet. As much as I love Derrick Henry, betting him to rush for over or under 123.5 yards seems like a crazy bet. Yes, either side of that seems crazy. Anyways, Williams showed that he is going to be the horse for the Chiefs while Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out. He rushed the ball 21 times last week and played 72% of the snaps. Tennessee is 21st in DVOA against the run and 20th in yards per carry allowed. We could easily add on for this game and others as more come up, but this number seems tied to the result for Williams last week when maybe it shouldn't be. 

Rashod Bateman Over 3.5 Receptions at +125

This is pretty simple in that Bateman played almost 65% of the snaps in his first NFL game and had six targets from Lamar Jackson. Sammy Watkins is still out for the receiving corps and the running back corps is now missing Latavius Murray. The Ravens spent too much draft capital on Bateman to not continue to give him a meaningful role.

Tyler Johnson (Buccaneers) Over 2.5 Receptions at -110

Antonio Brown is out for the Bucs and judging by the last time he missed a game, Johnson has a very good shot at exceeding this number. He played 46.6% of the snaps and saw six targets for 63 yards. If you're in line for 5-6 targets from Tom Brady, I'll take a shot at that prop at a solid return.

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