Sharp App: Sports Betting

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks Matchup Preview - January 8th, 2023

Sunday the Los Angeles Rams (5-11) will battle the Seattle Seahawks (8-8). Oddsmakers peg the Seahawks as the big favorite with an implied win probablity of 68%, leaving the Rams with a 32% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Seahawks -5.0 with a Game Total of 42.5.

Seattle's chief advantage has been their pass offense, which ranks #7 in the NFL at 259 yards per game through the air. They haven’t made things easy for opposing defense given they they've also positioned themselves in the top 10 on the ground as well, rushing for 4.72 yards per carry. It should also be said that opposing defenses have stacked the box a massive 11.5% of the time against the Seahawks in an attempt to keep their run game under control. Of course, this means fewer defenders back in coverage, which has opener up opportunities through the air for Seattle. This presents a decided advantage for Seattle given that the Rams haven't had much success in stopping the pass this year, giving up 7.89 yards per target (#12-worst in the NFL). When it comes to their defense, the Seahawks check in at #30 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 242 yards per game against Seattle this year (#21 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #25 against them with 5.12 yards per ground attempt. This Seahawks defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 121 yards per game (#2-best in the league). Seattle's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 76 yards per game (#1-worst in the league).

Los Angeles's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #30 in the league with a mere 279 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #6-worst in football with just 3.94 yards per carry. In failing to successfully establish the run, Los Angeles has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.5 yards per target, which ranks them #28 in football. In terms of their defense, the Rams have ranked #16 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 240 yards per game through the air against them (#20 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #11 with 4.46 yards per carry. Los Angeles has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to a 77.3% completion rate (#7-lowest). Los Angeles has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 71.2% completion rate (#2-highest).

Los Angeles Rams Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Baker Mayfield to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (12.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.2% in games he has played).

  • Tyler Higbee has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).

  • The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 8.14 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in the league.

Seattle Seahawks Insights

  • The weather report calls for light rain in this game... which typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

  • The Los Angeles Rams linebackers rank as the 3rd-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

  • The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Betting Trends

  • The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 27% ROI)

  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 14% ROI)

  • Geno Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.90 Units / 62% ROI)