Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints Matchup Preview - November 20th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Los Angeles Rams (3-6) will battle the New Orleans Saints (3-7). Oddsmakers peg the Saints as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 55%, leaving the Rams with a 45% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Saints -2.0 with a Game Total of 39.0.

Los Angeles's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #29 in the league with a mere 292 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #1-worst in football with just 3.31 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and the worst running back can find success if he's given open space. It should come as no surprise then that Los Angeles's o-line ranks #1-worst in this regard. In failing to successfully establish the run, Los Angeles has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.56 yards per target, which ranks them #26 in football. In terms of their defense, the Rams have ranked #4 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 225 yards per game through the air against them (#14 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #3 with 4.09 yards per carry. Los Angeles has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.46 yards per target (#6-best). Los Angeles has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 69.5% completion rate (#6-highest).

New Orleans's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 336 yards per game -- #10-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #3-least yards per game: 203. The New Orleans Saints pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing tight ends, who have managed just 27 yards per game against them (#32-least in football). New Orleans's best coverage unit has been their linebackers, which grade out as the #4 unit in the NFL in this regard. New Orleans's pass rush has been led by their linebackers who, ranking as the #6 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. When it comes to their offense, the Saints check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 237 yards per game (#16 in football). Their run game has ranked #27 with 3.9 yards per attempt on the ground.

Los Angeles Rams Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Kyren Williams to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (14.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).

  • Tyler Higbee's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this year, compiling 4.6 yards per game vs just 3.4 last year.

  • The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

New Orleans Saints Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Juwan Johnson has put up quite a few more air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (17.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Taysom Hill to rush for 0.24 TDs in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among WRs and TEs.

Betting Trends

  • The New Orleans Saints have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.75 Units / 13% ROI)

  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.05 Units / 48% ROI)

  • Tyler Higbee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.55 Units / 24% ROI)