Los Angeles Rams vs Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Preview - November 27th, 2022

Editor

The Los Angeles Rams come in as 15.5 point road underdog as they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to play the Kansas City Chiefs. The last time these two teams played was in Week 11 of 2018. That game produced a lot of points, as the visiting Rams pulled off the road win 54-51.

Los Angeles's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #30 in the league with a mere 290 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #1-worst in football with just 3.42 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and the worst running back can find success if he's given open space. It should come as no surprise then that Los Angeles's o-line ranks #1-worst in this regard. In failing to successfully establish the run, Los Angeles has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.53 yards per target, which ranks them #24 in football. In terms of their defense, the Rams have ranked #3 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 209 yards per game through the air against them (#15 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #4 with 4.14 yards per carry. Los Angeles has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 63% completion rate (#5-lowest). Los Angeles has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 69.5% completion rate (#8-highest).

Kansas City's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #1 in the NFL at 433 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Chiefs 347 yards per game through the air ranks #1-best in football this year. It should also be said that opposing defenses have stacked the box a massive 9.3% of the time against the Chiefs in an attempt to keep their run game under control. Of course, this means fewer defenders back in coverage, which has opener up opportunities through the air for Kansas City. When it comes to their defense, the Chiefs check in at #21 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 253 yards per game against Kansas City this year (#26 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #14 against them with 4.6 yards per ground attempt. A strong argument could be made that their best position group is their defensive tackles, who rank #5 in the league in getting pressure on the quarterback. Kansas City's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have caught 91.9% of their passes (#1-highest in the league).

Los Angeles Rams Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Brandon Powell to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack this week (10.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.2% in games he has played).

  • The Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackles profile as the 5th-best group of DTs in football this year in regard to pass rush.

  • The Sharp Model projects Bryce Perkins to pass for 0.84 touchdowns in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.

Kansas City Chiefs Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the Chiefs to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Patrick Mahomes has passed for a lot more yards per game (347.0) this season than he did last season (255.0).

  • The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (63%) versus TEs this year (63.0%).

Betting Trends

  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 43% ROI)

  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.50 Units / 59% ROI)

  • Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 62% ROI)