Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022

Sunday the Los Angeles Rams (1-1) will battle the Arizona Cardinals (1-1). Oddsmakers peg the Rams as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 63%, leaving the Cardinals with a 37% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Rams -3.5 with a Game Total of 48.5.

Arizona's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #9 in football at 4.48 yards per carry. What makes the Cardinals run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 9.5% of the time, the #2-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Arizona hasn't been thwarted. When it comes to their defense, the Cardinals check in at #12 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 219 yards per game against Arizona this year (#10 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #19 against them with 4.61 yards per ground attempt. This Cardinals defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, allowing them to complete just 66.1% of their passes (#6-lowest in the league). Arizona's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have caught 67.8% of their passes (#8-highest in the league).

Los Angeles's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #3 in the league with 427 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #3-best in football with 334 yards per game. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #5 in the league in pass protection. In terms of their defense, the Rams have ranked #14 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 235 yards per game through the air against them (#17 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #4 with 4.01 yards per carry. Los Angeles has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.81 yards per target (#10-best). Los Angeles has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up a 85.4% completion rate (#6-highest).

Los Angeles Rams Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Matthew Stafford to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (6.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.3% in games he has played).

• Cooper Kupp has accumulated a monstrous 98.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among wideouts.

• The Los Angeles Rams defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.64 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-most in the league.

Arizona Cardinals Insights

• The Arizona Cardinals O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

• The Arizona Cardinals linebackers project as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season with their pass rush.

• The Arizona Cardinals have gone no-huddle on 35.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Betting Trends

• The Arizona Cardinals have scored last in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.30 Units / 43% ROI)

• The Los Angeles Rams have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)

• Cooper Kupp has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.00 Units / 33% ROI)