Los Angeles Chargers vs San Francisco 49ers Matchup Preview - November 13th, 2022

Editor

Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers faceoff against Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers enter the game as a huge favorite (-340) as the home team. San Francisco is currently favored by -7.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 45.5.

Los Angeles's biggest weakness has been their run defense, ranking #32 in the league while allowing 6.01 yards per game on the ground. Perhaps part of their struggle has been because they haven't stacked the box the way teams often do to try and plug up their run game issues. They've brought up a safety or extra defender just 13.8% of the time this year, #10-least of any team in football. The Chargers defensive ends have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #4-worst in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular disadvantage for Los Angeles given that the 49ers have excelled in the run game this year, accumulating 4.75 yards per carry (#9-best in the league). In terms of their offense, the Chargers have ranked #5 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 283 yards per game (#5 in football). On the ground they've ranked #24 with 4.05 yards per carry.

San Francisco's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 297 yards per game -- #1-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 3.58. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #9 in yards per target (7.21). This 49ers run defense has been aided by their safeties, who grade out as the #2-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the 49ers check in at #17 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 243 yards per game (#13 in football). Their run game has ranked #9 with 4.75 yards per attempt on the ground.

Los Angeles Chargers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (10.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.2% in games he has played).

  • Gerald Everett has put up far more air yards this season (47.0 per game) than he did last season (22.0 per game).

  • The San Francisco 49ers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in football.

San Francisco 49ers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.55 Units / 31% ROI)

  • The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 51% ROI)

  • Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 43% ROI)