Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Preview - January 14th, 2023

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Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers faceoff against Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chargers enter the game as a favorite (-135) despite being on the road. Los Angeles is currently favored by -2.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 47.0.

Jacksonville's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #9 in football at 353 yards per game. The quality of their rushing attack has led to much of their success. The Jaguars 4.81 yards per carry ranks #6-best in the NFL. What makes the Jaguars run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 11.1% of the time, the #3-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Jacksonville hasn't been thwarted. When it comes to their defense, the Jaguars check in at #21 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 232 yards per game against Jacksonville this year (#23 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #6 against them with 4.29 yards per ground attempt. This Jaguars defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 63.5% of their passes (#6-lowest in the league). Jacksonville's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 9.05 yards per target (#2-worst in the league).

Los Angeles's biggest strength has been their pass defense, which ranks #1 in the league while allowing just 188 yards per game this season. The Chargers have done the best job shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 60.4% completion rate (#2-lowest). Los Angeles's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #4 in the league in locking down route-runners. In terms of their offense, the Chargers have ranked #3 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 284 yards per game (#3 in football). On the ground they've ranked #17 with 4.3 yards per carry.

Los Angeles Chargers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.2% red zone pass rate.

  • Keenan Allen has notched significantly more air yards this year (89.0 per game) than he did last year (82.0 per game).

  • The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Jacksonville Jaguars Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Trevor Lawrence to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (15.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.2% in games he has played).

  • The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

  • The Sharp Model projects Christian Kirk to accrue 0.43 receiving touchdowns in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

Betting Trends

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.55 Units / 22% ROI)

  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)

  • Justin Herbert has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 73% ROI)