Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Matchup Preview - January 8th, 2023
Sunday the Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) will battle the Denver Broncos (4-12). Oddsmakers peg the Broncos as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 70%, leaving the Chargers with a 30% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Broncos -6.0 with a Game Total of 39.0.
Denver's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #23 in football with a low 305 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their ground attack, clocking in at #28 in the league with just 3.92 yards per carry. What makes their struggles all the more jarring is how often they've faced a stacked box: 17.6% of the time, the #10-least of any team in the league. Even though opposing defenses haven't brought an extra tackler up near the line of scrimmage very often, the Broncos still haven't been able to get their ground game going. Perhaps because they routinely failt to successfully establish the run, Denver has also lacked effectiveness through the air. They've scraped together a measly 6.47 yards per target, ranking the bottom 10 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Broncos check in at #8 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 219 yards per game against Denver this year (#11 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #20 against them with 4.61 yards per ground attempt. This Broncos defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 6.78 yards per target (#1-best in the league). Denver's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 55 yards per game (#9-worst in the league).
Los Angeles's biggest strength has been their pass defense, which ranks #1 in the league while allowing just 200 yards per game this season. The Chargers have done the best job shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 60.4% completion rate (#2-lowest). Los Angeles's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #4 in the league in locking down route-runners. This represents a particular advantage for Los Angeles given that the Broncos have struggled so much with their pass game this year, managing just 6.47 yards per target (#4-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Chargers have ranked #4 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 280 yards per game (#3 in football). On the ground they've ranked #17 with 4.34 yards per carry.
Los Angeles Chargers Insights
The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Austin Ekeler's receiving talent has gotten a boost this year, totaling 6.4 yards per game compared to a mere 4.3 last year.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.71 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in football.
Denver Broncos Insights
Courtland Sutton has compiled many more air yards this year (98.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Betting Trends
The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.40 Units / 26% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 72% ROI)