Sharp App: Sports Betting

Los Angeles Chargers vs Cleveland Browns Matchup Preview - October 9th, 2022

Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers faceoff against Jacoby Brissett and the Cleveland Browns. The Chargers enter the game as a slight favorite (-125) despite being on the road. Los Angeles is currently favored by -1.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 47.0.

Cleveland's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #4 in football at 236 yards per game. The quality of their rushing attack has led to much of their success. The Browns 5.28 yards per carry ranks #3-best in the NFL. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. To that point, Cleveland's line ranks #3-best in the league in run blocking. When it comes to their defense, the Browns check in at #18 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 250 yards per game against Cleveland this year (#15 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #15 against them with 4.47 yards per ground attempt. This Browns defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 22 yards per game (#3-best in the league). Cleveland's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have caught 85.8% of their passes (#4-highest in the league).

Los Angeles's biggest weakness has been their run defense, ranking #32 in the league while allowing 5.02 yards per game on the ground. Perhaps part of their struggle has been because they haven't stacked the box the way teams often do to try and plug up their run game issues. They've brought up a safety or extra defender just 13.8% of the time this year, #10-least of any team in football. The Chargers safeties have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #4-worst in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular disadvantage for Los Angeles given that the Browns have excelled in the run game this year, accumulating 5.28 yards per carry (#3-best in the league). In terms of their offense, the Chargers have ranked #23 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 73 yards per game (#12 in football). On the ground they've ranked #31 with 3.29 yards per carry.

Los Angeles Chargers Insights

  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

  • Gerald Everett has posted far more air yards this year (52.0 per game) than he did last year (22.0 per game).

  • The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Cleveland Browns Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Jacoby Brissett to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (12.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (5.1% in games he has played).

  • The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

  • The Sharp Model projects David Njoku to accrue 0.30 receiving touchdowns in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among TEs.

Betting Trends

  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 16 games (+2.35 Units / 13% ROI)

  • The Los Angeles Chargers have scored last in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.75 Units / 52% ROI)

  • Justin Herbert has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)