Sharp App: Sports Betting

Las Vegas Raiders vs Pittsburgh Steelers Matchup Preview - December 24th, 2022

Saturday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) and Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8). Oddsmakers peg the Steelers as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 53%, leaving the Raiders with a 47% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Steelers -2.0 with a Game Total of 38.0.

Pittsburgh's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #28 in football with a low 3.88 yards per carry. This presents a decided disadvantage for Pittsburgh given that the Raiders run defense has thrived this year, allowing a mere 4.59 yards per carry (good for #16-best in the NFL). When it comes to their defense, the Steelers check in at #17 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 249 yards per game against Pittsburgh this year (#22 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 against them with 4.36 yards per ground attempt. This Steelers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 61.6% of their passes (#2-lowest in the league). Pittsburgh's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 6.64 yards per target (#5-worst in the league).

Las Vegas's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #1 in the league with 5.05 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Las Vegas's o-line ranks #2-best in this regard. In terms of their defense, the Raiders have ranked #25 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 264 yards per game through the air against them (#28 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #16 with 4.59 yards per carry. Positionally, perhaps their best defensive asset has been their defensive ends, which rank #3 in the league in terms of stopping the run. Las Vegas has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 47 yards per game (#1-worst).

Las Vegas Raiders Insights

  • The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 5th-best unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.6%) vs. wideouts this year (61.6%).

Pittsburgh Steelers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Kenny Pickett to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (17.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).

  • Pat Freiermuth has totaled quite a few more receiving yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (33.0).

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Betting Trends

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+3.70 Units / 38% ROI)

  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.25 Units / 30% ROI)

  • Kenny Pickett has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 8 games (+8.45 Units / 48% ROI)