Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Preview - October 10th, 2022
The Las Vegas Raiders come in as 7.0 point road underdog as they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to play the Kansas City Chiefs. It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The Chiefs won by double digits at home, outscoring the Raiders 48-9 in Week 14 of 2021. They say, good teams win, but great teams cover. The Chiefs not only won, but covered the -9.5 spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 48.0 and which the Over hit.
Kansas City's primary disadvantage has been their pass defense, which has allowed a monstrous 284 yards per game through the air this year, sliding them into the #4 spot among the league's worst. Opposing running backs have given the Chiefs the most trouble, posting 57 yards per game against this defense (#1-worst in football). Kansas City's defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #9-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for Kansas City given that the Raiders air attack has been so good this year, passing their way to 7.11 yards per target (#15-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Chiefs check in at #11 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 66 yards per game (#14 in football). Their run game has ranked #9 with 4.9 yards per attempt on the ground.
Las Vegas's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #3 in the league with 5.28 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Las Vegas's o-line ranks #6-best in this regard. In terms of their defense, the Raiders have ranked #23 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 273 yards per game through the air against them (#25 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #11 with 4.26 yards per carry. Las Vegas has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.73 yards per target (#8-best). Las Vegas has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 6.85 yards per target (#4-worst).
Las Vegas Raiders Insights
The Sharp Model projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 5th-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on just 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
Kansas City Chiefs Insights
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has passed for quite a few more yards per game (307.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).
The Sharp Model projects Patrick Mahomes to pass for 2.18 touchdowns in this game, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
Betting Trends
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 16% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have scored last in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 68% ROI)
Mecole Hardman has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 27% ROI)