Las Vegas Raiders vs Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Preview - November 6th, 2022
Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders faceoff against Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Raiders enter the game as a favorite (-140) despite being on the road. Las Vegas is currently favored by -2.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 48.0.
Jacksonville's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #7 in football at 364 yards per game. The quality of their rushing attack has led to much of their success. The Jaguars 5.58 yards per carry ranks #1-best in the NFL. What makes the Jaguars run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 11.1% of the time, the #3-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Jacksonville hasn't been thwarted. When it comes to their defense, the Jaguars check in at #18 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 252 yards per game against Jacksonville this year (#21 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #6 against them with 4.2 yards per ground attempt. This Jaguars defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, allowing them to complete just 67.5% of their passes (#9-lowest in the league). Jacksonville's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 42 yards per game (#7-worst in the league).
Las Vegas's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #2 in the league with 5.57 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Las Vegas's o-line ranks #1-best in this regard. In terms of their defense, the Raiders have ranked #24 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 278 yards per game through the air against them (#26 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 with 4.38 yards per carry. Positionally, perhaps their best defensive asset has been their defensive ends, which rank #8 in the league in terms of stopping the run. Las Vegas has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 53 yards per game (#2-worst).
Las Vegas Raiders Insights
The Sharp Model projects Derek Carr to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game this week (9.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).
Derek Carr has thrown for substantially fewer yards per game (227.0) this year than he did last year (258.0).
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on just 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Jacksonville Jaguars Insights
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
Evan Engram has accrued far more air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).
The Sharp Model projects Travis Etienne to rush for 0.67 TDs in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.40 Units / 42% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have scored last in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.05 Units / 41% ROI)
Trevor Lawrence has hit the TD Passes Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+5.20 Units / 15% ROI)