Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022

Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) will battle the San Francisco 49ers (3-3). Oddsmakers peg the Chiefs as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 52%, leaving the 49ers with a 48% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Chiefs -1.0 with a Game Total of 48.5.

San Francisco's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 269 yards per game -- #1-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 183. To give credit where credit is due, their run defense has also been terrific, checking in at #1 in yards per carry (3.37). The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing tight ends, who have managed just 26 yards per game against them (#31-least in football). San Francisco's best coverage unit has been their safeties, which grade out as the #2 unit in the NFL in this regard. San Francisco's pass rush has been led by their defensive ends who, ranking as the #6 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. When it comes to their offense, the 49ers check in at #7 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 168 yards per game (#6 in football). Their run game has ranked #7 with 4.89 yards per attempt on the ground.

Kansas City's biggest weakness has been their pass defense, ranking #29 in the league while allowing 283 yards per game through the air. The Chiefs have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing running backs, allowing them to rack up 55 yards per game (#1-worst). Kansas City's pass rush has been weak this year, being weighed down by their defensive ends, which check in as just the #25-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. This represents a particular disadvantage for Kansas City given that the 49ers have excelled in the pass game this year, accumulating 7.83 yards per target (#6-best in the league). In terms of their offense, the Chiefs have ranked #6 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 161 yards per game (#7 in football). On the ground they've ranked #14 with 4.56 yards per carry.

Kansas City Chiefs Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (19.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.7% in games he has played).

• Patrick Mahomes has passed for a lot more yards per game (318.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).

• The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

San Francisco 49ers Insights

• The Sharp Model projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

• Kyle Juszczyk has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (6.0 per game) than he did last season (16.0 per game).

• The Sharp Model projects Deebo Samuel to run for 0.13 TDs this week, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among WRs and TEs.

Betting Trends

• The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.70 Units / 43% ROI)

• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 12% ROI)

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.30 Units / 57% ROI)